BIG SHOW PREVIEW FOR UFC 130

I've missed the last couple Bellator cards, so no reviews there. Maybe when I get this spate of travelling and OT working done, it'll happen.

So UFC 130 is happening - the question about the main event is "Can Rampage be motivated enough to win?" That is the only interesting thing. I think 60% of Rampage demolishes 110% of Hammil. Rampage wins by TKO in a fight where the only drama is in the minds of a few hardcore fans like me.

Rick Story is super strong, but Alves is too. Considering that Story has had tough fights with less, I think he gets beaten up here. Safe pick with long time top 5 welter Alves.

Roy Nelson KOs the shit out of Frank Mir. Everyone thinks Nelson is an elite heavyweight afterwards except people who watched Nelson fights prior to TUF.

Browne KOs Struve inside a round.

Santiago KOs Stann. I know Stann hits hard and Santiago's chin is questionable, but c'mon. Santiago is a skilled fighter who's faced better.

Has anyone noticed that Demetrious Johnson got his ranking beating a guy who hadn't had a meaningful win in like 3 years? And by beating Damacio Page, who's fame comes from an episode of the unwatchable shitfest that was Tapout? Miguel Torres is winning a decision and brings the exciting back because he's easily hittable.

Kendall Grove beats the shit out of the Viking Boetsch. Guys moving down like this who were never that good at their original weight rarely work. He'll probably lose a lot of his strength and get KOed.

Tibau and Tractor are both top control guys. Who wins? The guy who is stronger. That's Tibau. Tibau wins.

Other fights I know not enough about both competitors to make a prediction.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 5/7

So this didn't get posted because Blogger was down for like two days. Oh well.

ULTIMATE FIGHTER 13:

Chuck O'Neil wins with a d'arce against Torres, who doesn't do anything but try and wall and stall in fights. Torres just doesn't belong in the top tiers of the sport. Can't check leg kicks, can't throw good punches. O'Neil is no superman either - he's throwing hooks and leaning back while he does it. But he's a better grappler and won. Dominated in top control in the second.

BELLATOR 43:

Rich Bouphanouvong had strong takedowns and nothing else. Not all that effective in GnP, leaves limbs and the head out there. Watch out for that triangle from David Rickles! Oh. Too late.

Vince Lucero was fat and out of shape, ends up on his back and then gets a kimura. Classic strong man submission from Ron Sparks.

Jose Vega shoots on the wrestler Chase Beebe, gets guillotined. Not like Chase didn't go for that 3-4 times in the fight beforehand. Oh. He did. Beebe has now won 6 of his last 7, but hasn't beaten a single meaningful opponent in years. Closest to it was Mike Easton in a lousy decision he lost, but Mike Easton kinda sucks.

Joe Riggs is washed up. What will we tell the papers? Oh, he's still a UFC vet and DANGEROUS. Well, a danger to himself, sure. Baker clobbered him at distance while Riggs could only windmill forwards.

In the welterweight tournament fighter, there were two grapplers tenatively stiking and one wins because he threw about 5 more shots. Rick Hawn landed the best punch of the fight in the second and did so little else in the bout that he ended up losing a split decision that even he admitted he lost. Jay Hieron, meanwhile, is the poor man's GSP. I still think he's fighting hurt. No takedown attempts at all. Only some odd spinning kicks along with the jab for offense. Didn't move very well.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 5/2

UFC 129:

Pablo Garza looks to be in an entirely different weight class than Yves Jabouin. Pencil legs or not, it seems like this should be a walk in the park. Garza can't check kicks at all though. It doesn't matter here because he pulls into a flying triangle and eventually locks that in to win by submission, but against a bigger, stronger guy, it will be relevant and it will matter.

Makdessi was on a season of TUF that I should have recapped and didn't and now I don't remember anything about it. Oops. So here he fights Kyle Watson and basically dismantles him. Joe Rogan in this fight (along with the Rory MacDonald fight) did a very good job breaking down not only what Makdessi was doing well but why it was working well on Watson, who's chin was vertical and head unmoving. Even dropped Bill Superfoot Wallace's name. Makdessi does very impressive looking kicks, no doubt about it, but he still has a tendency to shuffle straight back when someone comes forward at him, no doubt something that is ingrained from years of point karate. He's also a small guy. No reason to lie about that. People who are that undersized have a tough time competing in a sport filled with powerful, skilled wrestlers.

Daniel Roberts is a top control grappler who throws a lot of arm punches or shots across his body. Against Claude Patrick, he was in deep against a guy who is as skilled a takedown artist, a better striker, and better at submissions. End results: Roberts loses a decision, gets hit in the face a few times, is on his back more than on top, and eats low kicks. Patrick is a skilled all around fighter who doesn't give a star vibe but has consistently strung together wins, sometimes struggling, but still getting Ws against largely an equivalent level of competition. When does he step up?

Ellenberger/Pierson went not entirely as expected. I expected Pierson to be good enough to hang with Ellenberger for a little while. Instead he walked into left hook twice, the second time causing his body to shut off and he sorta topples to the mat.

Menjivar/Valencia was possibly the fight I was most excited for off the main card. Hell, even among fights on the main card I was most excited for it. Instead, it had a cool finish but not much else. Menjivar and Valencia were in the clinch and Menjivar cracks him with a tight thai elbow that blows up Valencia's face. Nothing super fancy, nothing innovative. All effective. All technique.

When we get to Nate Diaz's fight against Rory McDonald, man, how have I ignored that Diaz has a sub .667 record all this time? Seems like he has been more successful given the fight with Gray Maynard and stuff like that. In this fight, I thought McDonald would have a significant disadvantage with Diaz's wild boxing style and grappling. Bzzz. Wrong. What Rory did was nullify Nate's attack by closing the distance and clinching (forcing Diaz to rely on very poor wrestling) any time the bout got to boxing range. Otherwise, it was low kicks, low kicks, low kicks. By the third, Nate had been ground down enough that McDonald, the stronger of the two men, started throwing him around like a rag doll and was on top without fear of submission. Very smart plan. To Nate Diaz's credit, he got some separation and landed blows in the second round, but McDonald stayed composed and would immediately clinch after being hit.

What was Ryan Jensen's gameplan with Jason MacDonald? I have no idea after seeing that. Looks like he thought he'd just bomb him out with wide looping shots. Instead MacDonald shoots, takes him down, and runs a clinic on him en route to an easy triangle win. Jensen needs to get a pink slip. That simple.

Randy Couture: Please stay away from the Octagon. Its not a thing of hatred. You just don't have it anymore. And against Machida, you probably never would have had "it" to begin with. The athleticism is gone and now guys have much superior technique too. Couture was treated like a moving punching bag. All the talk about the brilliant Randy gameplan flew in the face of flatfooted, following Randy Couture of the last two Liddell fights. That's who we got here.

Want to see two overrated lightweights fight one another? Ben Henderson's win against Mark Bocek is your fight. I guess that's not fair because no one that meant anything ranked Bocek, but you have a couple guys with OK wrestling kickboxing and occasionally pummelling and sometimes being on the mat. Henderson's a better athlete with better standup and even though his takedown defense is so-so, that's enough of a combination to prevent Bocek being on top for more than two minutes in the fight. In the interim, Henderson lands better shots and wins rounds or forces the fight down with his strength to having top position. I dunno, I'm not sold on Henderson and until he frequently beats top guys, I never will be.

Jose Aldo's performance in defending his title is not easy to sum up in a single sentence. Was it disappointing? I guess. Its what I expected though. He got hit a lot more in this fight after fighting super busy and fast in the first, and gassed out, even losing the 5th round to the Elephant Man. But my expectations are naturally a low lower than most, who see Aldo as top 3 pound for pound. Aldo got takedowns and had dominant positions on the mat against a guy who has repeatedly been exposed as being lousy off his back or defending submissions. Aldo should have tapped him in the first. Instead, he went for GnP and not even to really pass. Hominick is a known quantity, and beating him for four rounds and then losing the fifth is OK and whatever else, but you gotta take him out to show that you're world class, and he didn't do that. The right hands he landed were fine and hurt Hominick; OK. The elbow caused what should have been a fight ending hematoma. Alright. I don't care. Aldo should have won by armbar 4 minutes in after his takedown midway through the round. He didn't. He even lost the final round and got beat up in doing so. Exposed.

Finally, we arrive at the main event. George St. Pierre's gameplan I understand. Makes sense. Meant that he was so far ahead after 3 that he could coast (as he had to) and win the fight with only one eye against the guy who was argurably the best contender for a world title in two weight classes. But still, I'm bothered that he didn't show another gear and start stringing together combinations and demolishing Shields. Jake never would have had the chance to poke him like that in the 3rd if Shields had taken him out in the second, and it wouldn't have taken much more than throwing a second jab followed by a straight right or uppercut and working the body to drop Shields' hands. Jake did nothing round after round and smiled because, presumably, he won a round and did better therefor than most everyone else GSP has fought since the first Serra fight. I dunno, whatever. No one is gonna care 20 years from now that Shields did incrementally better than Dan Hardy or Thiago Alves.

INSERT NUMETAL INTRO HERE TUF 13

Lew Polley goes home, some jobbers got hurt, and WOW. Who cares.

Tony Ferguson and Justin Edwards kick it off and they went at it. Ferguson throws some solid punches - tighter stuff, good hooks and uppercuts. Edwards wants takedowns and Ferguson keeps busy on his back and gets up. But when Edwards stands out of the guard and looks to try and pass, and he's hit with a heel upkick and Edwards is out. Dana is so stoked at a 4 minute fight. OK, I guess? Ferguson has some of the best creds on the show.

Zach Davis fights Chuck O'Neil in the second fight of the episode. Another fight Dana loved for reasons I cannot ascertain. Davis gets a takedown early and lands some okay shots, gets up to pass, does so, gets swept while going for a kimura, and then locks in a triangle. Apparently Chuck O'Neil is some sort of warrior because he's a grappling warrior. I dunno. He gets picked along with Torres for the wildcard. Hoofuckingray.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS:

Last week: 7-3

Overall for 2011: 32-15

Bellator 43:

Rick Hawn shouldn't beat Jay Hieron. I've said it before. He might though given how mediocre Hieron looked in his last fight. I think Hieron has a bad wheel but even with an injury that he's keeping quiet, he should still have good enough striking to outland Hawn on the feet and good enough grappling to keep the fight from going down in any fashion other than Hieron on top.

Joe Riggs is fighting Bryan Baker? Seriously? Baker has lost twice - once was to Chael Sonnen in Magic Juice Sonnen phase. The other is to Alexander Shlemenko, who is a worthy adversary and a long time vet. He's beaten a lot of other solid fighters though - Jeremy Horn, Art Santore, Matt Horwich, Rory Singer, Eric Schambari, Sean Loeffler, Reggie Orr, Jesse Forbes. Some of those guys were never weres, some were pretty OK fighters, but most were well past their best. I can say that confidently about at least 5 of those names. Joe Riggs is a guy past his best. He was stopped on punches in January in a show no one has seen against a guy no one has heard of, and Louis Taylor aside, he hasn't had a win of any real profile since beating Phil Baroni 2 years ago. He hasn't beaten a contending fighter since 2006. Bryan Baker is KOing Riggs back to the little leagues.

Neil Grove should KO Zak Jensen. Much bigger, Jensen can't wrestle, and they'll bang. And it could be terrible.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 4/25

BELLATOR 42:

The world has another Noguiera, except this one is a Luta Livre guy. Luiz Alberto Noguiera's win over Jerod Spoon was a watchable affair, certainly, but not an enthralling one either. Spoon was generally dominated standing because he stayed too far away and didn't move the way he needed to in order to line up Noguiera for his big right. Standup for him was sorta Dan Henderson like, though I suppose Spoon has a better jab and not nearly as good a right hand. Noguiera, meanwhile, sorta pitter pats and didn't do any real damage in the fight, instead cleaning up points with his low kicks and punches.

Christian M'Pumbu was the slight underdog going into this - nearly even odds, actually. He walked this fight against Tim Carpenter instead. Carpenter, at least in my mind, was going to immediately close the distance on the smaller M'Pumbu, clinch, put him on the mat, and grind on him. Instead, he showed zero standup skill by following M'Pumbu around the cage and getting hit with punches until being stopped with a 1-2 combination to the head and an uppercut as Carpenter was falling.

Ronnie Mann's fight against Josh Arocho was basically a waste of time. Already you can see how Mann is outsized here in the US and while he overpowers Arocho with sweeps or takedown defense and murders him with strikes inside the guard, you can't really expect that sort of performance against better fighters. Arocho is a jouneyman at best.

Richard Hale is a much bigger man than DJ Linderman. That I knew. What else did I learn about Richard Hale? Well, he looks a whole lot like Vitali Klitschko and even holds his hands about as high. That means he doesn't. OK, so more info that means something to me - uh, Hale moves straight back with his hands down and has nice kicks. Does this guy have a karate background? He doesn't really keep distance that well and as far as being a grappler is concerned, I feel like he's not a top control sorta guy. He never seems to really overpower people, and he didn't look at any point to purposely get Linderman to the mat. In fact, he's taken down in the second round off a single against a guy who supposedly didn't wrestle at any collegiate level. Possibly not even high school. Linderman is the same brawler sorta guy he's always been but didn't have a guy in front of him who ran out of gas in part because he never really pushed the fight the right way to make it happen. Linderman wins on the color guy's card and not the official judges because, to be honest, the judges did a good job and scored leg kicks for a change instead of jabs and wide right hands that seemed to have very little effect. Linderman spent about 3 minute of the final round on his belly defending the RNC too. Why didn't Hale transition to the armbar? The world shall never know.

BLAHHH ULTIMATE BRAZILIAN FIGHTER THING 13 ICHIBAN

So some stuff happened in the house and I went past all of it because, really, that shit sucks. Mick Bowman and Clay Harvison fought this episode. Harvison I knew nothing about and Bowman will probably win because they wouldn't put a British guy with zero talent on this show. So anyways, the fight: It kinda sucked. Sloppy standup bout in which the ultimate winner (Harvison) gassed out 7 minutes in and yet still won with a largely inactive striking attack. You know how? By fighting a guy who was juking more than jabbing and who wouldn't throw straight punches even when he could land them. Bowman just has no power in his fists and while he's clearly a good grappler on his back, sucks at wrestling and is the sort of guy who probably had success pulling guard against less technically skilled or athletically gifted fighters and tapped them. Internet even says he has three of 7 wins by submission. Maybe that's true? Boxing wise he's not much worse than Harvison if not technically superior, but he lacks mental toughness. But he does, he cries afterwards, and Harvison moves on to the next round.

There's only a couple more fights left for the first round before they do the wild card bout, and Harvison may, thanks to the pure shittiness of the fighters on, get a slot. He can't beat Javier Torres with a gun and probably loses to Len Bentley too based on what I saw here.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

Last week: 0-2

Overall for the year: 25-12

UFC 129:

My heart says Jake Shields. And hey, he is a much bigger guy than a lot of GSP's opposition, and an excellent collegiate wrestler, and a fantastic top control guy willing to stink it out. Doesn't that sound like Jon Fitch? Look how that went. I have to pick GSP like everyone else in the world to take down Shields and grind him out. Or jab him up. Or whatever GSP wants. The big fear for me in GSP losing is that its something like a guillotine that he is caught in shooting.

Speaking of what my heart says - I'll take the bait people have left and say Aldo beats Hominick in spite of me thinking that Aldo's athleticism is hopelessly overrated and that Hominick has the kryptonite to make this interesting in the stand up. Aldo can shoot in and take down Hominick and the fight is over just like that. When you have someone so deficient in an area that you have to hope that the other guy fights stupid, you can't take him unless that person has a long standing history of fighting dumb.

Brilz is younger than V-Mat and wins. Strong wrestling cancels each other out and we get a standup fight that Brilz is unlikely to lose.

Speaking of unlikely to win, Couture isn't winning. Last good counter puncher he faced was Liddell. Sure went well, huh?

Ben Henderson is the guy UFC brass wants to win against Bocek. You can feel it. Why make that fight unless they were looking to build Henderson back up in the UFC over a long period? Size wise, no big advantage for either guy with reach or height. Submission grappling is the big difference here, and Bocek is the best guy Henderson has ever faced. I mean, its him or Saravia, right? I think Bocek loses and it takes the shine off the WEC guys big time.

Nate Diaz/Rory McDonald is a really interesting fight - I feel like McDonald is less skilled but a bigger guy naturally, and size matters. Plus, he went to war with Condit...but Condit does kinda fight to the level of his opposition. So, Diaz by submission.

Can Sean Pierson last long enough against Jake Ellenberger to take advantage of him and win the fight? Answer: No. Ellenberger 29-28. Loses round 3.

Really fast with no descriptions really given: Jason McDonald has been fighting like shit for awhile so he loses to Ryan Jensen and his 7 minute gas tank. Daniel Roberts is in way over his head against Claude Patrick, who they'll get some rub off onto with a stoppage win in front of a Canadian crowd and 7 people watching on Facebook.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 4/18

Man, so little to review and yet it took me until 12:30AM Friday morning to see anything.

THIS IS THE ULTIMATE DUN DUN DUN DUN-DUN-DUN-DUN-DUN #13 EPISODE 4 OR 5 OR SOMETHING

Ramsey Nijem and Charlie Rader are fighting and hey, its the best fight the season has produced thus far on paper! Brock and Co. note that Rader is a state champ wrestler. Hey, that's nice. Nijen wrestled in college with real dudes and ends up dominating the fight. He comes at Rader with wild shots Rader isn't prepared to counter or defend, gets the clinch, gets takedowns, works dirty boxing, and submits him. The editing makes Rader out to be a quitter for the purpose of drama and who cares. Len Bentley leaves because, shit, he did fight his ass off.

BELLATOR 41:

We open with Daniel Straus taking on Kenny Foster - Good win for Straus. Shows solid grappling with some decent shots, good leg kicks, nice judo throws, and gets a guillotine late in the third round. He kept the pace up and wore out Foster against he cage and on the mat, eventually leading to Foster being unable to compete with Straus in the scrambles and leaving his neck out for the submission. Straus looks really good all around. One caveat though - his striking often leaves him super open and Foster got tagged a couple times.

Chad Robichaux is in a superfight! Who? Against Zach Makovsky? Who is a champ? Or something? Both guys with glitzy records at bantam. Who deserves his? Well, Makovsky. Robichaux seems a decent fighter who is hopelessly outsized here and needs to hope for a 125lb weight class to come into existence. Makovsky repeatedly gets takedowns and dominant positions. Sure, Robichaux gets out of some subs, but he gets smashed out with punches. Is that really much better?

Patricio Pitbull Friere and Wilson Reis rematch and we get a pretty interesting fight as a result. Reis and Friere end up in a sort of standup battle most of the time with Friere landing the more effective blows in rounds one and two when the fight would be at a distance. When on the mat, Reis was the technically superior grappler (as expected) and Friere was the physically stronger man (as expected) - what's nice about Friere is that he knows his strengths and works to them. Against a great grappler like Reis, he looks to control the upper body and holds at the waist rather than try to fish for singles and doubles against the cage. Control and wearing down your man is a better option than trying for takedowns you can't get. Thanks to that smart gameplan, Reis ends up eating punches late in the fight and ends up getting highlight reel KOed with a combination against the cage forcing the stoppage. Very good performance from Friere.

Marcos Galvao and Joe Warren end the night in a three round fight. If you haven't heard, this was supposedly a terrible decision that Warren didn't for a second deserve. So let's talk about what I saw in this fight: Both rounds one and two were generally won by Galvao, but were close rounds in which while he appeared to land the more effective shots, Warren was able to force him to the cage repeatedly during takedown attempts and also was able to land straight right hands thanks to Galvao's unchanged interest in moving straight back in the cage with his hands down. That in turn led to takedowns at the end of both rounds, to which Warren was unable to do anything particularly effective. So what do you score these rounds on?

Well, both guys honestly landed a similar number of shots - Unfortunately there are no fightmetric reports, but I do have Compustrike to base what I saw on: In round 1, it was 14-13 landed in favor of Galvao for standing strikes. In round 2, it was 20-15 in favor of Galvao. We're talking tight numbers here. Warren landed the only strikes on the mat in round two (one of which was a clean and effective right hand to the jaw through the guard of Galvao), but in round one, clearly the more effective shots came in the first 30 seconds on the mat as Galvao had Warren turtling up while he wailed away. So who cleanly wins the round? Does Galvao win for having defended takedown attempts over and over or does he lose them for getting tagged with right hands standing while being pushed around and taken down in spots?

I would probably have scored this fight like everyone else - 29-28 Galvao. When I think back to the moments of the fight where someone did the most damage or really hit the highlight reel, I think of Warren diving into 3 flying knees in the second round and Galvao beating the tar out of him in the first minute of the round. Its the highlight reel stuff where everyone goes "oooh" and its not like Warren then went to so comprehensively win the remainder of those rounds that he bounces back in my eyes. If anything, the rest of the round is generally even with only his takedowns to go on. But this was not an easy fight to score, and I can see just about any score in this fight but 30-27 Galvao given Warren's comprehensive top control in the final stanza.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS:

Last Week: 2-0

Overall for the Year: 25-10

BELLATOR 42:

Hale is, as I've said in the past, a very big dude. But he's a big dude I know nothing about. He's got submission skills judging from the Fekete fight, but how real are they? Was it a fluke? He's gonna tower over Lindermann, who is a tough guy and is very good at wearing bigger men out. I'm going to predict DJ Linderman by second round KO, being the feel good story of the Bellator tourneys. Hale just isn't going to be more effective with submissions than past Linderman opposition and being so big and cutting so much, he too will tire and feel the pain of looping punches raining on him.

Carpenter is a strong grappler and M'Pumbu is, well, not a great wrestler to be frank. If you can't wrestle, you can't win at a certain level, and this is that level for M'Pumbu. In spite of his cool record and the fact that he looks scary, I have to pick against M'Pumbu and treat this like a heavyweight boxing contest: robotic European can't beat a more dynamic American!

Ronnie Mann is fighting a 6-9 fighter to fill up space on the card. I could say "Hey, I predicted a fight right!" and pick Mann, but that is stupid. Of course Mann is going to win. Like fishing with dynamite.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 4/11

Bellator 40:

Ben Askren got a nice W over the now "retired" Nick Thompson. Lots of people complain that Askren doesn't finish. What he does is the equivalent of a low power pressure fighter in boxing. You know these guys - Phillip Holiday, Juan Diaz, Raul Balbi, Leonard Dorin. You know the type. Well, okay, maybe you do. They come and come and come and come. They don't stop trying to knock you out or hurt you, they just can't. Sometimes they learn to sit on their punches more and they land those kind of big shots and end fights. Juan Diaz did for a little while. And sometimes they don't. Its a tough style to do but it makes for good bouts. Askren is fighting guys who don't have the ability to really do anything to him in terms of stuffing takedowns or making him work for the shot, so it might wear on people. Against Hieron, it would be different I think. At least more entertaining.

I said after seeing Chandler win his last fight that he would only be able to beat Woodard of the three potential opponents in his next fight. That's who he fought, and he won going away. Took him down over and over and over and over. Chandler is a one dimensional wrestler who has wrestling chokes. Typically, this is a good thing against Brazilian strikers like Patricky Friere, but I think Friere's immense size for the weight combined with a BJJ background could dismantle Chandler. Honestly, I'm not as sure now as I was a couple weeks ago.

Jay Hieron's decision win against Weedman is a classic example of the judges giveth, the judges taketh away. Hieron probably landed the more effective punches in the second but did eat some leg kicks, and totally lost the third round. Could he have lost the fight? Sure. But Weedman pushed with his shots and basically walked Hieron down. Hieron seemed to have a hellacious time getting this to the mat and had a couple shots stuffed in the second. Its like he couldn't change levels or something, which is weird for him, because its his blast double that's his bread and butter. I think he's fighting hurt and that its a knee or something similar. He shouldn't lose to Rick Hawn, but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

As for the heavyweight clash of Prindle/Burns - less said, the better. Ends on a cut. Neither guy jabs or kicks. Both throw lead left hooks and right hands. Neither can throw a combination. Both were gassed very early and both look like the members of WCW tag team High Voltage. Gassed up and nowhere to go. One thing I can tell you: Prindle is goddamned huge.

Strikeforce Diaz/Daley:

Aoki made Beerbohm look stupid. Well, Beerbohm shot in and ends up getting tripped (sorta like a single - really nifty takedown), taken down, gives up the back, and loses by a neck crank of sorts. Aoki wins the battle of fancy pants.

Mousasi beat the hell out of Keith Jardine and somehow gets a draw. I'm like everyone else - how does that happen? He won every round on my card. All of them. Sure, it was 9-9 for the first, but still. That's 29-27, Mousasi. Someone scored it a draw. Yes, Jardine gets some takedowns in the first and the second, and even has some time on the top in the 3rd. But he's never there long and does nothing with it. Meanwhile, Mousasi has Jardine bleeding from almost every facial orifice as a result of the straight punches that land over and over.

Melendez was throwing that right hand as if he were Dan Henderson. Of course, Kawajiri moved straight back into it. He looked like he was in panic mode from the get go after getting tagged with a right hand as he shot in, and the Matt Hughes like 1-2 and shot never got going. Instead, Crusher took a beatin' with knees, punches, and elbows. the actual ending was pretty stunning - Kawajiri shoots desperately from outside, gets sprawled on, pulls guard, and then gets blasted with elbows until the fight ends.

What is there to say about Nick Diaz's KO win over Paul Daley that has not already been said elsewhere? It was a slam bang pow fight between guys at a certain level in the division and made for good TV. Daley could barely make it back to his stool, which means in retrospect that it was probably the right call as far as a stoppage is concerned. Meanwhile, man, Diaz got in some nice body shots again, didn't he? He just chewed up Daley with those. I dunno, its possibly the best win in Nick Diaz's career and yet its one he shares with the likes of Nick Thompson. Consider that aspect of it carefully.

ULTIMATE FIGHTER + BLAHHHHHHH

This week we are gifted a bout between Len Bentley and Ryan McGillivray. Bentley was the top dog on Lesnar's team and McGillivray is some guy. As I pointed out in my very short preview of the season, McGillivray has fought good fighters and lost to them, but at least fought them. Bentley's big step up was a lost to Cody McKenzie and a failout of the M-1 selection process. Anyhow, this is a competitive and entertaining, albiet low level fight between a couple guys who's chins get in the way of right hands and don't really seek proper takedowns. Bentley goes for an armbar in the first round that he gets stacked out of and they trade knockdowns in the first as well. In the second, McGillivray really does a better job of staying at distance and landing blows, clearly winning the round in my book. Honestly, he did a better job in the first, and while I would have been tempted to 10-10 it, I would have scored it the way two judges did. Best fight of this short season right now. Neither guy will win.

MFC 29 was reviewed separately.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

Last week: 2-3

Overall for the year: 23-10

First really bad week where I go below .500 thanks in large part to the Mousasi/Jardine decision. Still have my head scratching. So this year, I've been reminded of two things while reviewing:

-Don't pick against a guy because you don't like his physicality and his entertainment value in past fights. I did this with DJ Linderman and I looked like a fool.

-If someone seems washed up, they probably are. I did this with picking Terry Martin to be in any way competitive, much less beat Lima, and I looked like a fool.

They are emotional things, and emotions are tough when watching fights. This week though: Short week. Just one promotion to worry about.

BELLATOR 41:

Joe Warren vs. Marcos Galvao at a 137lb catchweight: Man, Galvao is a top control grappler to the max and no chin. Warren is a great wrestler and a decent banger too. Warren is the star. Galvao is the after thought. The star is intended to win and shall, likely by decision. Normally one would be worried about Galvao winning by decision given Warren's predisposition to leaving his arms in bad places, but Galvao has never won by sub in his 13 fight career.

Patricio Freiere vs. Wilson Reis: Nothing changes in the rematch of these two fighters. Pitbull wins by controlling distance and preventing takedowns, and this time he stops Reis.

I'll skip on predicting Foster/Straus, though my feeling is that Straus wins. Foster is too unknown and Straus too untested to make any sort of safe statement here.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 4/4

RECAP:

Strikeforce Challengers got it's own review. Check that here.

Bellator 39:

I don't do biz talk, but Bellator is spending about $1-2 per fan watching at home on TV per show. And this isn't pay cable where the network is getting $5-7 from that fan to get the channel. The network gets about .10-.2o per subscription (if that, may be free) plus ads. Odd that no one has mentioned this.

-I called Imada getting laid out. Terrible fight for that guy. Freire is now on everyone's mind as being a top independent and being a serious challenger for Alvarez. Note: Alvarez is a whole different hill of beans than is Imada. I'm not at all convinced he's a real challenge for him.

-I called Good beating Hawn. Just one problem - the judges didn't see it that way. The takedown at the end of the third probably won Hawn the fight, as everyone knows. The fight itself was nothing special - Good was very aware and afraid of Hawn's clinch and takedowns and yet Hawn was hardly all that successful with them. Instead he pushed Good to the cage and held him there trying to pummel while Good threw pitty pat punches. The fight as abjectly terrible. What was with Good's wild combination that he got taken down off of in round 2? Why didn't he jab more? He should have recognized the situation early on and skipped out on the leg kicks, pumped the jab, and stayed as far away as possible, making sure to continuously move to Hawn's left. Instead, he generally stayed in front of Hawn and his squared up figure made it easy to be grabbed onto for the body lock.

-Ben Saunders beating up Matt Lee isn't a bad thing. He did what he needed to and cut the hell out of Lee and stopped him. But Saunders looked tired after the first and he left legs out there for a much, much smaller man to grab and pick up. Everyone talks about his clinch fighting - Why is a 6'3'' welterweight specializing in the clinch? And that is why he's never going to amount to a real contender, people.

-I only ended up seeing Alvarez/Curran for about the first two rounds thanks to the show going long and me having a couple programs to record at the same time at 11PM. Oh well. Curran hangs on to survive and wasn't trying to win. Supposedly he may have taken the 5th round. I'll tell you one of these days if I get another chance to watch it.

ULTIMATE FIGHTER WITH BLAHHHHHHH:

Uhhh, fight shown this week was a somewhat interesting battle of positioning between Chris Cope and Javier Torres. Torres was claimed to be perhaps the most or second most talented guy on Team Dos Santos, which makes me very worried for the rest of the year. Chris Cope is a mildly talented brawler in the mold of TUF 9 star Frank Lester. He's a part time fighter who has a little bit of wrestling from probably high school and his time at Team Quest as well as some brawlriffic striking. Torres is obviously a BJJ guy with some kickboxing. For the record, I think Torres clearly won rounds one and two by pushing the fight where he wanted it (against the cage) and landing the better blows in the standup exchanges and in the clinch. Feeling bad or something for Cope, instead he was given the second by a couple judges and we were off to sudden death. There, Torres, dead tired, continued his same sort of wall and stall strategy only to keep losing position in the pummel and even get his back taken briefly. He was just outworked that round, and lost the fight. Torres has zero wrestling. Zero.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS:

Last Week: 3-1

Overall for the year: 21-7

MFC 29:

-Douglas Lima against Terry Martin is almost a cruel joke of a fight. Martin epitomizes wasted potential. Lima is just mildly interesting as far as potential goes. Martin has zero chin, but Lima is no great striker. In fact, having watched Lima before, I still have no idea if he can strike. At all. Martin is a decent wrestler, but he is terrible at game plans. Alternately, he's never been submitted. Jesus. I hate fights like this. I gotta go with Martin. Bigger guy, stronger guy, better wrestler, should be able to control where the fight is, and clearly a better striker based on the evidence that exists.

Strikeforce:

-Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley is an interesting matchup for a great number of reasons. Diaz has largely owned guys standing for sometime, but Daley is not a brawler who relies entirely on pressure. He's a solid technical guy. Daley has suspect takedown defense - he seems to know what he's doing against Jake Shields at times, then gets taken down by Jorge Masvidal other times. Diaz is, frankly, not a great wrestler, and that's gonna be a problem for him. At least, it would be if I had any expectation that this fight was going there. Truth be told, Nick Diaz loses to fighters of Paul Daley's level, and I think that's precisely what happens here. With five rounds and Daley being a punching monster, I think Diaz gets the lights turned out on him here. I can see Diaz winning by submission should he get dropped and Daley follow him to the mat, but if I'm gonna suggest a winner, I'm picking Paul Daley around round 3.

-Mousasi and Jardine is an interesting fight for a great many reasons, but not the least of which is the fact that Mousasi admits to not training in a cage for this bout. All but admits he's anticipating standing and banging. And with Jardine, that is a legitimate possibility. Mousasi is probably a strong enough grappler to fight off Jardine's clinch and takedown attempts, should he bother with them, and as far as them trading punches and kicks goes - would you want to pick Jardine to win a standup fight in light of losing to an old middleweight wrestler from South Africa? I thought not. Mousasi looks good here and rebounds in his career. Jardine continues the spiral into irrelevance.

-Lyle Beerbohm was lucky to get a decision win over Vitor Riberio, who stylistically is very similar to Shinya Aoki but not as good from the bottom. Aoki is a better overall grappler and even if he sucks standing, Beerbohm is no killer. Clear difference in skills, Aoki wins by submission, possibly a leg lock.

-I want to analyze Melendez/Kawajiri, but I don't have the time to do it properly. I think Melendez wins because even though he is a naturally smaller man, he's gotten better technique wise, grown more as a fighter, and the general momentum is on his side.

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 3/28

For M-1 and Titan FC, see the individual reviews.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 24:

-Noguiera defended the takedown! What a job Mark Munoz did in camp for him! I mean, Rodrigo Noguiera did previously beat another strong wrestler in Matyushenko, but I considered him possibly washed up at that time. Still, Noguiera didn't win the fight. After stuffing the doubles in the first, Davis eventually starts working for single and gets those and controls the second and third rounds. His striking is still a bit shaky and robotic. The high kicks are especially uncomfortable looking coming from him. The shot is not super fast - maybe he works on it more now, but a pure power wrestler in the vein of V-Mat, Bader, or Tito isn't gonna get the job done to beat Jon Jones. Not no way, not no how. Noguiera meanwhile regresses to gatekeeper status again. Another fight with Shogun makes sense, as does a Tito fight, a rematch with Bader, a rematch with Brilz, and hell, lots of other fights. He's a good all purpose dude to have around.

-Dan Hardy can't stop the double. That is the story of the fight with Anthony Johnson, who remembered that he was a wrestler first. Joe Rogan specifically points to the grazing high kick in round 1 and resulting top control for Johnson as when he thinks the lightbulb went off in Johnson's head. Do I agree? I dunno. Probably not. Johnson doesn't even set up the shot with strikes - Hardy comes forward, Johnson is bouncing around on his toes, and then he just shoots and gets deep penetration with the shot. Hardy comes away looking just as one dimensional as everyone supposed he was coming in. Anthony Johnson, meanwhile, is like the black Mike Swick. Too small to be an effective middleweight at an elite level, not talented enough to really run with top welterweights but more effective at 170 so long as he can make weight by overpowering lesser guys. Where does he go now? A Koscheck rematch?

-Amir Sadollah is the MMA version of a pressure fighter in boxing. Pressure fighters come forward, throwing combinations, never hurt guys with one shot, and just break you down with the assault. Sadollah was helped in this by Damarques Johnson's poor ability to control the action on the mat when on top. Seriously, Johnson's attempts to pass guard were some of the most poorly suggested ever imaginable. He could have laid in half guard and ground down some of Amir's energy and landed some shots. Instead he lost dominant position twice looking to try and improve on it. Foolish. Amir can't break eggs with his shots, but they do accumulate, and if your opponent isn't that well conditioned, he will fold. Amir also has another problem - he can't wrestle. Still. Don't think he ever will at this point. UFC is giving him good development fights right now but how long will they be willing to keep this up when almost no one remembers Sadollah or what season he's from? I don't remember what season he's from.

-Korean Zombie lands a twister against a guy who's grappling is...uhh....questionable. Oh who cares. Neither one will make a mark in the elite tiers. This was for fun and Jung proved to have changed his approach.

-I tried to watch Hathaway/McCray but got bored and my mind would drift. Hathaway still can't wrestle and McCray is just too generic and mediocre to take advantage of dominant positions or to bang out Hathaway standing (where he was superior to Hathaway). Hathaway gets a couple trips and some sweeps and wins a competitive fight. Problem here is that McCray isn't really a competitive guy at 170 and frankly, Hathaway sorta isn't either. The momentum of the Sanchez fight is long gone now. What we have in the welterweight division is the UFC attempting to manufacture another contender out of the morass of second tier fighters by not matching these guys against one another, and instead putting them in with weaker gatekeeper style fighters. This has led to Anthony Johnson and Carlos Condit sticking their heads up above the rest of the group for right now, wrong or right. IMO wrong and Kampmann is better than either. But who cares about my opinion when most MMA fans are blithering idiots who can't see actual star potential or look at pro fighters rationally as to what they offer? Condit makes for exciting fights against not so good fighters and so he is deserving of skipping over all the guys who actually have beaten people at his level or above, and that's too bad for people like me, who want to see fights that aren't a wash. Oh well. More Koscheck style jab fests, ahoy! At least these guys who will get the shit kicked out of them are white and speak english, so the UFC won't waffle about booking the fights.

I know it sounds like complaining, but really, the UFC should and does know better than this. Maybe its all they can think of doing with the pool of guys from #7-#27?

ULTIMATE FIGHTER:

-Did I really see this shit correctly? This is the list of fighters? Shamar Bailey is who I'm most familiar with and he won the opening bout of the show by laying on German kickboxer Nordin Asrih for two rounds in side control or half guard. His shots were basically uncontested and this was an easy, easy fight. Bailey lost to the son of legendary dirt track racer Steve Kinser and Justin Wilcox in the cage. To be blunt, he's a strong guy and a good wrestler but not much else. Certainly no one to get excited about in the UFC. The rest of the cast, as best I can give opinions on:

Ramsey Nijem: DII/DIII wrestler for Utah Valley, beat a legitimate fighter in Scott Casey.

Len Bentley: Southern fighter. Lost to a McKenzietine. Made it to the M1 Selection Finals and lost.

Charlie Rader: 14-4 Pro record features no meaningful wins. Oddly, he has a meaningful win listed as an amateur bout against Josh Rafferty in Bellator from 2009. Did as well with Adrien Miles as did Dave Menne.

Anthony Ferguson: Win over David Gardner by what appears to be GNP, as well as a W against James Fanshier. Also has lost to Karen Darabedyan.

Ryan McGillvray: Lots of experience against good fighters, unfortunately he's lost to most all of them. Still, experience counts when so many guys totally lack it. BTW, he's serving a suspension from the NSAC. So, yeah. He probably doesn't win.

Mick Bowman: British.

Keon Caldwell: Southern fighter who suffered a submission loss to one of the Lima brothers. Notable in that there's not a lot of BJJ masters on this show.

Clay Harvison, Chris Cope, Chuck O'Neil, Javier Torres, Zack Davis: No notable things to be said at this moment.

Its a crap shoot as far as who wins. Gun to my head, I pick Bailey, I guess. I think Nijem and Rader are the most interesting to see otherwise. I feel like Bowman wouldn't be here if he couldn't fight a little bit, so he should be interesting to see. Cope and O'Neil come from good schools and that may make them better prepared.

BELLATOR:

-M'Pumbu got exposed terribly last year and here in the states it can be expected to happen against. Chris Davis, his opposition for his first US fight, was basically unknown and had suffered losses to modern Jeremy Horn and Vinny Magahales. He got some decent GNP in the first round but as the fight dragged, M'Pumbu was able to generally go for decent submission attempts and totally controlled the third round. He got down Davis after landing some punches, and then beat him up from riding the back landing punch after punch until Davis slumps from a shot to the temple, forcing a stoppage. He's got some decent striking (though his chin is often up while he throws) and his submission grappling is good. However, he is a lousy wrestler.

-Fekete and Hale - I know neither. But man, Hale is a big, big dude. Fekete is a serious wrestler and he's skilled, gets down Hale and looks to take him down again and slam him during a scramble from side control. What does Hale do? An inverted triangle. An inverted triangle. Holy crap. Fekete doesn't even tap, he goes out cold.

-DJ Linderman looks totally different as a light heavyweight. Smaller man as he was at heavyweight, but with the weight down, his cardio is up even more. Against Davis, who is the better wrestler, he again wears him down as he did against the much larger Mario Rinaldo and gets takedowns and lands strong punches at range. Davis is mouth open and gassed, leaning back into shots, and has to shoot in desperation after a particularly hard left hand shot in the second. Linderman still shows that like against Rinaldi, his ability to defend the shot and hold onto position isn't that great, but when the opposition is so tired as it is here, he can hang on. Linderman ultimately wins by TKO after landing lots of punches, takes Davis, throws him to the ground from Thai plumb, and crushes him with a right hand while Davis is on all 4's. Linderman is a sprawl and brawl guy from the days of 2003 and I admit being very surprised that he was successful here. I wouldn't rush to bet against him elsewhere in the tourney.

-Tim Carpenter's win over Daniel Gracie should be a surprise but I didn't really feel that way. Gracie never really adapted to MMA well and Carpenter, a BJJ black belt himself, actually controlled the grappling action and actively went for dominant positions and submissions. He had the mount and two armbar attempts in round 1 alone. On the feet, he tagged Daniel Gracie with punches and rocked him in the second and third. It wasn't a perfect fight, because honestly, he should have tapped him with all the positions he had. But it was solid. And he showed a gas tank that will be key in beating future opponents.

STUFF I MISSED AND CAUGHT UP ON:

Fight for the Troops 2!

Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman: Cole Miller is a BJJ guy at heart and walks forward punching like one in this fight. The downside of doing that is Wiman counters him as he closes the distance, Miller sucks at infighting, and he gets taken down repeatedly. Wiman takes round after round after round as a result. You can't say that Wiman looks noticeably different in his approach - its just a terrible gameplan for Miller that negates his positives that leads him down the road to a big L.

Joey Beltran vs. Pat Barry: The most overrated striker in the recent history of heavyweight MMA fighting some brawler dude. How does it go? As you'd expect. What I found interesting about this fight was the complete absence of a game plan from Beltran. Apparently his idea was to stand at range from Barry and get kicked? Great idea, dude. He repeatedly finds success pushing Barry to the cage and beating him up with dirty boxing. So does he keep after it? No, because it won't get him a fight of the night bonus and will have him released if he does lose. Instead, he fights stupid and takes a billion leg kicks. Somehow he hangs on to the end of the fight, winning one round on some cards (likely the first) and then dropping the second and third. Barry still can't wrestle, is still small, and still depends on other guys being mediocre to beat up on them.

Joker Guymon vs. Damarques Johnson: Guys who got a UFC contract off of merchandising deals? Joker, of course. Oh, he has some OK wins too, but he didn't get the chance because of his skills. So what happens? Johnson takes him down, gets on top, and eventually transitions to back control. Then Joker taps out to a body triangle after getting straightened out. Joke is on me for watching!

Cody McKenzie vs. Yves Edwards: Still astounded this fight happened. Cody is really a featherweight and should drop. He still is a terrible athlete and is a one trick pony, but who knows. Featherweight sucks. Cody does the usual job of a Gracie BJJ guy and rushes with strikes to get a clinch. Yves is kinda good standing and so this begins to look like it will be a terrible beating. And that's basically what happens. If you are looking for positives from McKenzie, its that he is very tough and can take a hellified beating. He pulls down Yves Edwards and actually has back control for a significant period in the second. But he's not that strong, Yves is too crafty a grappler himself, and after being forced to keep scrambling for position, Edwards eventually reverses position and gets his own RNC. Fighter meets gatekeeper, doesn't pass.

George Roop vs. Mark Hominck: Another sure to be beatdown. Roop stands and bangs and he's fighting a guy who is a lot, lot better than him at that. And that's what we get. Roop doesn't know how to use height, leaves his chin up, and gets demolished. Right hands, left hooks, whatever. They land with impunity because Roop moves straight back, doesn't jab, doesn't throw front kicks, doesn't clinch.

Mike Brown vs. Rani Yahya: Brown is on the wrong side of his career fighting in a division seeing an influx of new talent from a weight class he got bounced out of. Yahya, a last minute replacement who was better suited for 135 than 145, should be a guy he walks through and dominates throughly by taking and holding down. Or by banging out standing where Yahya sucks. So what really happens? Brown lands a strong overhand right over the wild strikes of Yahya, and that's how its looking to go. But Yahya just keeps running and moving, throwing off Brown. That's not good. Then Yahya shoots a single. Brown defends it initially, but keeps getting dragged down and can't get separation. In the second, Brown again goes to strike with Yahya, but then does the astonishing and initiates the clinch. Why do that? Why put yourself at risk instead of strike? Brown is on top and does nothing there after nearly being guillotined. After the standup by the ref, same thing happens. Who is making Brown's gameplans for him? Is he just not capable of executing? Is he that ingrained to wrestle? With Yayha's decision to go to flail and shoot at the start, Brown is again on the defensive and now too tired to do anything about it. He gets taken down and slowly gives up position from full to half guard, then gives up the back, is flattened, and gets Brown beat the hell up with punches. Yamasaki gives Brown a reprieve due to shots to the mohawk area and again its another flail and shoot and Brown can't fight it off.

Hague was a good opponent for Mitrione and his development, wasn't he? Stand and bang guy who is smaller than Mitrione and less of an athlete. Mitrione's southpaw stance is something no one talks about. Hague never threw the straight right to counter and instead ate left hands over and over that he didn't see coming. Joe Silva is hella small too. I keep forgetting about that. And his hair! But back to Mitrione. This is a fairly soft touch intended to build up his record and confidence. Not much past that. He's not at the level that Schaub is but hey, that's expected. He has a long time in the game to get better.

Evan Dunham had no answers for Melvin Guillard's one-two. Never changed the speed up on his closing with Melvin, never came behind his own jab, never set the distance, didn't keep his chin down or use lateral movement. Got caught flat footed and was put out as a result. Melvin needs more wins against this level of competition before anyone can reasonably start to believe in him.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

RESULTS: 3-3

OVERALL FOR THE YEAR: 18-6

STRIKEFORCE:

Weird card with what looks like a Bodog headliner in Rodrigo Damm vs. Justin Wilcox. Damm has never been a great grappler from the bottom, and Wilcox is a pretty darn good one from the top. Put that together with Wilcox's superior wrestling and Damm's losses in 3 of his last 4 and its pretty clear that Wilcox is getting another W. Does he stop Damm? Nah. I don't think so. So he will in 2 rounds.

BELLATOR:

Is it really a newsflash that Pat Curran won't beat Eddie Alvarez? He's not a good enough BJJ guy to do it, and while I think Alvarez is actually getting wilder and more hittable in the standup now than he was 3 years ago, I don't think Curran is the guy to expose him. Alvarez by TKO, crowd goes wild.

Tournament Fights: Lyman Good may have not been able to stop the takedowns of Ben Askren, a potentially undersized grappler, but Askren was a great wrestler who is a ball of kinetic energy being unleashed in the cage and who seeks dominant positions and punches. Rick Hawn is an undersized welterweight who hasn't shown explosive shots and active grappling, but instead shows the game of a flat footed wrestleboxer. Can't bet against Good in this fight. I just can't do it. Good probably would be wise to go to the clinch early and test what precisely Hawn offers for throws and physical strength. See where his technique is or if he plans on overpowering him. If its the latter, then beat him mercilessly.

Toby Imada is everyone's favorite journeyman. Unfortunately, journeymen are journeymen for a reason: They aren't good enough to stay in one place and establish themselves as contenders. Patricky Friere is a lot like Thiago Alves to me. Maybe not as good - somewhere between Thiago Tavares and Thiago Alves in terms of doing similar things with grappling and being willing to look for KOs. Now, Toby Imada got robbed against Pat Curran, but otherwise since 2007 in MMA aside from the KO to Eddie Alvarez hasn't lost. I will agree to this, for whatever that statement means. He has even beaten a guy who I still think is a better fighter in him in Jorge Masvidal. Proof is on youtube! if Friere is willing to take down Imada, he deserves to get submitted, swept, or otherwise lose the fight. But if he plays the smart game and stands at a distance and beats him up, he should stop Imada. And that's a big win for the guy. Way better than Rob McCullough.

THE BIG SHOW REVIEW: Week of 3/21 Pt. 2

UFC REVIEW CONTINUED:

-Jim Miller made Shalorus look as ordinary as I expected. He's better striking, he's faster, more technical, much better at submissions, etc. When Shalorus shot in the second, it led to him getting his back immediately taken and rode for two minutes. He couldn't even recognize the foot lock Miller openly gave him by crossing his feet. Miller started seeing Shalorus ducking his head and began in the third round by ending combinations with uppercuts. He wiffs a few times then catches him, hurting Shalorus and leading to the ending knee and punching spree. Fights like this honestly don't do anything for Miller but build confidence, and that's really not the worst thing in the world. He needs a fight with Clay Guida before making the step up to a title contest, but he's being brought along nicely IMO. Just needs that experience of a wrestleboxer with straight, fast punches. Miller never led the exchanges and never needed to either. Shalorus was that predictable and slow.

-Forgot to reference Assunciao getting laid out by Koch. This is another example of guys dropping down to 145 when its viable and destroying the mainstays of the division. Koch timed the hook beautifully and was generally doing a very good job setting the traps and counters beforehand. In that talent wasteland, who knows what he can do?

-Brendan Schaub didn't make a fan out of me beating the shell of Cro-Cop. Yes, the takedowns looked good. Almost like tackles. But Cro-Cop's takedown D has been tested and failed on numerous occasions in the last couple years. Plus - the top of the division are guys with All American awards as wrestlers. Some of the guys beneath them are in the same boat. Schaub is athletic and changes levels well, but his striking is slow to develop. So much one punch at a time stuff that a better guy is going to take advantage of fast. A rematch with Roy Nelson would be interesting, I suppose. Meanwhile, Cro-Cop is finished and has been for a long time. You'd be insane to have denied it even two years ago.

-Eddie Wineland, a guy who by all accounts is a lousy wrestler, forced Faber to work very hard for takedowns in round 1. That is the big takeaway from the fight with Faber and Wineland. Faber is still short for a bantamweight, he still holds his hands too low, and he's still very fast and tough to time. He had a tough time really bothering Wineland with his slapping punches until later in round 3, but I think it was clear that Faber was landing the better stuff in round 1 and won all three stanzas. But the takedowns - you know, there was this beauty in round 2 where Faber gives a feint and then sorta floats his way straight into the wheelhouse of Wineland, scoops up the lead leg, and then trips the back one. It was marvelous. But against Cruz, I have a feeling it doesn't work now. Cruz moves and movers need to have the ring cut off and you need to shoot for center mass punching them. Faber doesn't do that. He relies entirely on his athleticism. Maybe I'm going about this all wrong and Cruz really isn't any faster than Wineland, but I don't believe that to be true and so I don't see Faber having an easy time putting Cruz on his back or beating him.

-Dan Miller isn't a very good middleweight. What else is new? Marqhardt is bigger, throws harder, gets better position, and can fight his way back up from takedowns like nobody's business. Miller just throws crappy punches and tries to get takedowns off Marqhardt's more spectacular leaping kicks and punches. Speaking of Marqhardt leaping: What the fuck was that technique he was using? He keeps his distance then jumps in and then throws punches? Uhhh, dude. You are not Roy Jones. You are not fast enough to move in and out linearly like that and not get timed by much better fighters. Or even just OK fighters, which is how you lost to gatekeepers like Okami and Sonnen.

-Gleison Tibau vs. Kurt Pellegrino can best be described as "a fucking mess". Both men are firmly entrenched in the position of "journeymen" and in turn, this should be a sort of crossroads fight where one is demoted out of the UFC and the other keeps their place. Instead, what we get is a tepid, nigh unwatchable affair with neither man trying to win the 3rd and final round, and only one round comprehensively won by either man (Pellegrino wins the second off the strength of his striking, a solid right hand on Tibau, and a takedown). Tibau probably wins the 3rd round off the strength of his own takedown with 45 seconds left along with his more orthodox but robotic and slow boxing. Pellegrino pushes what little action occurs in the first round but neither guy lands anything. Its a split decision and I would have been fine with a draw.

-Njoukani and Barboza put on the FOTN as the folks running the show thought, and I guess I agree. It was a decent, skilled standup battle that while it wasn't a fever pitched exchange of winging punches was pretty fun to watch. Barboza really believes strongly in the kicks. That's fine. Just one issue; MMA is ruled by wrestlers. Wrestlers live to catch guys throwing kicks. If Anthony Njoukani can take you down, you will be planted on your back for an entire fight against Clay Guida. Barboza's wild spinning kicks are also just begging for double leg takedowns to counter them. And to be entirely honest, I can see why people would feel like Njoukani was robbed here. It was a close fight in which Njoukani outworked Barboza in both rounds 2 and 3 but lost the last 45 seconds in such decisive manner that it probably altered the judges' perception of the entire 5 minute period. Its nice to outland your opponent, but if they can wobble you once in a round where you do little more than jab then, judges will remember that. If they take you down too? You better get busy.

-The less said about Catone/Phillipou, the better. Constantinos still can't stop the shot and still can't do anything from the bottom. If he wasn't on his back, he was against the fence and unable to do anything. Catone can wrestle and even if Philipou can strike well, it doesn't matter if he keeps being taken down and mauled. Might as well cut him after this.

I didn't see the other two fights, so yeah. Well, OK. I saw a little of Benevidez/Loveland. Man, Benevidez had a helluva time getting him down, didn't he? That's the problem with being too small for your division sometimes. Already you're seeing scrub 145lb fighters move down and make noise or at least be competitive with the top of the class.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

Titan Fighting Championship: I could easily run my record up predicting two of the fights, but that's not fun. Instead, the co-main event is Abe Wagner, TUF alum, against ShoXC alumni Aaron Rosa. Aaron Rosa fought in a stinker against Devin Cole that he didn't deserve to win, and lost to some light heavyweights that aren't really at the next level or anything. On the other hand, Abe Wagner is a tough guy to explain. He KOed a former UFC champion, sure. He was also KOed in 8 seconds by Travis Browne and went to a split decision with Sherman Pendergarst. Don't even ask about TUF. In short, while Devin Cole is a strong wrestler with some striking ability and also the willingness to have whatever it is that assault in the fourth degree tied up with sexual harrassment means, he is markedly different from Abe Wagner, who has no wrestling background but instead played football at Michigan Tech.

Rosa may look soft, but he's skilled in ways Wagner isn't, and he doesn't typically wade into wide shots. He'll beat Wagner down and possibly KO him in the early stages.

Bellator 38: Again, only one fight I'm willing to predict - Raphael Davis and DJ Linderman is a fight between a foreign born product with some wins over legit opposition where, as best I've seen, he was dominant. On the other side, you have Linderman, who has heart, isn't as good a grappler, and as the "bigger man" was effectively just fat. Davis, meanwhile was plenty soft as well. But again; this is about who is more skilled, right? Davis is more skilled. He does more things well. Linderman might hang on for a decision but it seems like I get the winner right and the pick of how wrong. Since my inclination is a decision win for Davis, I'll say Davis wins by second round submission.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 24:

Phil Davis/Antonio Rogerio Noguiera is one of those fights you can only do when you really don't care who wins and you feel like it doesn't matter. Everyone is focused on Davis' wrestling, and Noguiera, like his twin, has problems with dominant wrestlers. He's also not as good as his brother from the bottom, though he certainly is skilled. Davis hasn't faced an equally skilled submission wrestler or striker to Noguiera, and he may be less willing to seek the takedown knowing that he could fall into Noguiera's traps on the mat. Standing, Noguiera won a bronze at the Pan Ams. I know more about it than anyone else because I watched the entire tournament. No matter how its framed, yes, it is impressive. So anyways, a pick: I think Noguiera wins, beating the young prospect probably by decision. There you go with that.

The undercard is interesting to me for a few fights - Dan Hardy and Anthony Johnson are fringe welterweight contenders, but Hardy does nothing well and isn't the kind of athletic and physical specimen that Johnson is. Nor is he as big. Hardy can hit plenty hard and Johnson's chin might be there to get hit, but I would be surprised if he lands real leather. Johnson is a big favorite for a reason, and I think he stops Hardy.

There's a lot of mediocre TUF guys on the undercard I can't be bothered to type about, but there's some other stuff I can get up for. Jon Madsen is a high level amateur wrestler and still undefeated as a pro. Mike Russow is also a high level amateur wrestler - not undefeated as a pro. On the other hand, Russow has face by far the better level of competition. Madsen will be a legitimate prospect in the division if he beats Russow...I'd think he's even better than one compared to Schaub. But talking about beating Russow and beating Russow are different things. In the end, experience matters and Russow has it along with talent. He beats Madsen and maybe even stops him with a keylock.

Also, finally: Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung: It was Krazy Horse/Syraipai for a new generation the first time. Rarely are wild brawls like that in the rematch. If you ask me who looked the worse for wear, or hell, asked anyone with eyes, they'd say the Korean Zombie doesn't look the same. I agree. Garcia by deserved decision.

THE BIG SHOW REVIEW: Week of 3/21 Pt. 1

I'll split this up for opinions I'll have as they're freshest:

-No idea what really happened in United Glory but I was 1-1 in picks.

-James Irvin showed up about 9 lbs over and gets beaten in seconds. Shocker.

-I had a nice conversation with Lee Casebolt on Friday about the UFC show. I told him then that Jon Jones not winning the title would rock the foundation of my worldview. I considered it that impossible that he would lose. I was right. Shogun had no gameplan, was gassed one round into the fight, and was overwhelmed by Jones physically from the get go. Forget the talk about knee injuries and what not. He was never a skilled enough fighter to challenge Jones ever. What was he gonna do, take Jones down? Rush him with punches and risk being in the clinch?

One thing Lee and I discussed that I now agree with - the best matchups are not Rampage but Machida and Evans. Rampage is, as Lee reminded me, too easily manhandled in the clinch. Maybe not easy to take down, but Matt Lindland and Dan Henderson were able to keep him against the fence when needed. Jones comes in wild, and when you are that wild, someone with great speed and movement can counter you and make you look foolish. Machida is very possibly such an individual. I would pay money for that fight. Evans will be tougher because of the gulf in size, but he does have an appreciable advantage in hand speed and technique. Horrendous game plan from Marshall. If he retires, well, OK. You weren't getting any further anyhow.

On Eliot Marshall/Luis Cane: That was my one wrong pick for the UFC card. Marshall looked terrified in there and Cane mugged him. He did nothing to set up takedowns and stayed square and against the fence almost the entire period of the fight until being KOed in the first. Luis Cane isn't back yet. Won't be official for awhile if ever.

Watched all of Bellator:

-Lee told me Eric Larkin was a beast. Well, he's a beast that can't set up the shot in MMA, got sprawled on, ate a knee that busted up his face, and he got choked out with a guillotine trying to press for the takedown.

-Daniel Straus looked good at 145 beating Malegarie. Its his best win in terms of performance and guy he beat. Didn't look good getting rode in the first round, but he outlasted the Argentine fighter, showed some grappling prowess, and clearly was much better on the feet (which was expected). With Larkin out, I think his one of his biggest worries in the tournament went with him.

-Wilson Reis looks like a star running over Zac George, dropping him, taking a dominant position, and then submitting him. But then again, how many times has Reis looked like a star, then disappointed? I've seen the story too many times. He needs to be at 135.

-Patricio Freire KOed Karakhanyan in the third with a big hook and followup GNP. He was a lot bigger physically and like his brother, you see him setting up punches and takedowns by timing them based on the opponent's movement and predictability. At 15-1, he is indisputably the best featherweight in Bellator outside of Joe Warren, based on the people beaten and skills shown. But that inability to wrestle with Warren is not something that will go away overnight.

Predictions for this weekend: 8-2

Predictions for 2011: 15-3

THE BIG SHOW REVIEW: Week of 3/14

Recapping:

BELLATOR 35:

-You know why I don't pick fights with guys I haven't seen? Because of shit like McCullough/Friere. Everyone assumes that Bellator slotted him with someone who couldn't beat him and Friere turns out to be a much larger man who knocks his block off and controls him on the mat. McCullough had a good second round and was looking like he might win a decision in the third when he threw a leg kick and got timed with the right hand over it. He was done as soon as it landed. Friere is such a strong kid. Reminds me of Thiago Alves. I don't think he's that crisp, but he's definitely strong and his stuff hauls ass when he goes to land. Not really a plodder. Punches are, OK, not good defensively but all things considered, I wouldn't be worried about it.

Not to knock leg kicks either, but there's a time for them and a time not to bother. Friere didn't check them, sure. But then again, he was looking to walk through them and land on the back end of an ill advised low kick from McCullough. Razor Rob never really got to dictate the distance of the fight, which I suppose isn't surprising since he's not a slick striker and was smaller.

-Imada breaks some poor guy's arm (Shockey) in a 90 second fight. Shockey was better served standing with Imada, who got to the finals of a Shootboxing tourney last year with his grappling alone, but apparently he didn't get that memo. He tried to pass to side control, and Imada just regained full guard and then rolled up the arm. Shockey's attempt to slam out of it was ill advised. The whole situation was.

-Lloyd Woodard's win over Carey Vanier didn't inspire. He caught a guy moving straight back with his hands down. He nearly did it about 3 times in the first round but Vanier would be able to grab him and hold on for awhile. Even got a takedown. Woodard seems like he can scramble decently and he hits pretty hard, but technically he's nothing exciting. Friere smashes him so bad.

-Michael Chandler was another guy who won and just looked OK. Held gave a couple reasonable submission attempts for his offense but got choked out with a head and arm choke by the wrestler. If Chandler fights Imada next, he gets wrecked. Same with Friere. Woodard? He wins and gets to the finals.

SHARK FIGHTS:

See the review from earlier in the week.

Predictions for 2011: 7-1. Only picked two contests last week and got 'em both.

CORRECT: Villefort/Horwich, LaRosa/Damm

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

UFC 128:

Shogun vs. Jon Jones: Man, is this a situation of too much too soon for Jones? Shogun's problems come against big guys who grapple. This is true if they are top guys like Forrest Griffin or old guys who may be a couple years from heart failure like Mark Coleman. Jon Jones is a really big guy who grapples. Bad, bad style matchup for Shogun. Now, its true that Shogun may be able to come forward and bring heat to Jones, but when has Shogun consistently brought pressure in an MMA fight since PRIDE's demise? He's a better submission artist than the guys Jones has fought; again true. But Shogun's last big performance rolling on the mat was what again; Kevin Randleman?

End result is this: Jones wins the title by stoppage in round 2. I don't know that Jones can beat Rampage Jackson, who I think is the biggest threat style wise to him in the division. But I'd like to see the fight.

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland: Eddie is not old by any stretch of the imagination, but he's fought top guys before and lost. He can be outwrestled, and Faber can do that to him. Faber's a better athlete than Wineland and almost too fast to time, so that's probably outside of what is reasonably possible for Wineland to do. This should be another impressive showcase for Faber before a title fight later this year. I expect Faber to win by stoppage in the second.

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus: Can Miller stop the takedown? Does it matter? Miller is a well rounded fighter with a good BJJ background. Shalorus is a wrestler with bad punches. Kamal's best bet is to swing and hope that Miller forgets the fundamentals and leaves a big enough opening to get hit. You don't bet on that happening. Miller wins a decision.

Nate Marqhardt vs. Dan Miller: Waste of time caused by Akiyama cancelling. Miller can't beat Nate anywhere. Only fear is that Nate the Great turns into a lay and pray machine.

Cro-Cop vs. Brendan Schaub: Smells like a setup fight for Schaub given how lousy Mirko has been for, gosh, 5 years? Schaub by decision in a tepid affair.

Luis Cane vs. Eliot Marshall: Tough fight to pick. Eliot is such a strong wrestler though that I have to imagine that Cane, who hasn't faced anyone similar ever, is going to have fits. Marshall by decision. Could be hotly debated after because of Cane's activity in certain parts of the early going.

Ricardo Almedia vs. Mike Pyle: How sad to see the Big Dog doing this. Pyle is, to be brutally honest, the better fighter at this point in time after Almedia took so many years off. Pyle is inconsistent, but as a wrestler he's still darn good, he's not easy to submit from the bottom, and he's a better striker than Almedia. Patrick Cote outwrestled the Big Dog - why expect Pyle not to? Pyle by stoppage late.

KSW 15:

Mamed Khalidov vs. James Irvin: What a sad fight. Khalidov will knock off Irvin's block. Dude is a mess on drugs and has no other options in life right now but to keep fighting. Almost tragic that it can happen.

United Glory Round 2:

Siyar Bahadurzada vs. John Alessio: Alessio is the best wrestler Bahadurzada has ever faced. I was stunned to discover that, but its totally true. On paper, Alessio runs over Siyar in under 3 minutes with a submission. The thing about this show is that the house promoter manages Siyar, so I can't be sure what sort of trickery may happen here. I stand by Alessio in 3 minutes by submission, but if he doesn't shoot, the fix is in.

Roan Carniero vs. Tommy Depret: Again, one guy here is the promoter's boy (Depret) against a more skilled outsider. Against the similarly sized and not as skilled Sergio Moraes, Depret was manhandled and finished in a round. Carniero may have activity issues, but he's fought top guys regularly and been competitive with them. He's a better grappler and he's a halfway decent striker too. He won't stand with Depret but that won't matter on my card. My card is the issue. I don't score officially. Some guys Golden Glory are paying will be. And they'll score a 3 round fight for Depret to my dismay.

THE BIG SHOW REVIEW: Week of 3/7

Fist, let's recap:

STRIKEFORCE -

-How about that Dan Henderson? Still relevant after all these years. I hate how he loads up with the right hand, but people don't give him enough looks to take his timing away and instead he blast through them after they throw lazy jabs and shots. In a division that is strong on talent, I gotta say I think Dan is in the top 10 still. Maybe #9 or #10, but he's there. I think he's done at least as much as Thiago Silva to belong, and most consider him to belong there.

The one thing I see coming up is this - if Mousasi wins and gets the next title shot with Hendo, Hendo's not the same sort of wrestler that King Mo is. Yeah, he's an Olympian, but he's a Greco wrestler with a slow shot, and not even necessarily great takedown defense. Mousasi isn't likely to leave his hands down and be lazy punching or kicking as Feijao was.

-Coenen wins by submission in Round 4 after being dominated and marked up. Score another one for 5 rounders being better. She got taken down repeatedly and didn't even look better standing, getting banged up by a shorter slugger.

-Jorge Masvidal has gotten better by being less exciting. We can't blame Greg Jackson for that either. But man, classic stick and jab performance in MMA. Doesn't get easier than that.

-Tim Kennedy takes down Manhoef and submits him easily. I AM SHOCKED.

BELLATOR:

-Chris Lozano had beaten the right kind of opponents to prepare him for a bout like this against Good, but just not enough of them. He needed seasoning - lots of it - and it showed. Good was the smaller man, yet dictated the distance, pressed Lozano into the cage, and wore him down. Takedowns were all Good, and when he was able to control the place the fight took place, Lozano fought scared.

-Anthony Lapsley was pretty well dominated even though he wasn't actually getting choked out when the ref jumped in. He got deep with a shot but I think if it wasn't for Hieron pulling back into the guillotine, he never would have been on top. He was quickly swept and dumped on his own back before being mounted, forced to roll over, and the end came shortly thereafter (even if premature). Hieron, meanwhile, proves he has ability off his back in addition to being such a strong wrestler.

-Most people would have said looking at Weedman/Hornbuckle that it was an easy pick. Fighters like Weedman are why I don't pick against people I haven't seen. Lots of complaints about the decision and I think they're fair, but look; if you spend almost the whole round on top, and you end up nearly having an arm outstretched for the submission at the end of the round, you're going to win even if you spend most of it dodging triangles. Weedman's unorthodox striking is not merely unorthodox, it isn't that good. Big wide openings often times that Hornbuckle took advantage of.

Going back to Hornbuckle; the reason why he isn't elite is that he gets situations that are meant for him to win and he takes too long to process. He sweeps Weedman off his feet and there's about two seconds of Weedman on his ass looking confused before Hornbuckle chases him down and takes his back. A faster reaction to something so obvious would have gotten him the win. Instead? He is out of the tourney.

-Rick Hawn is tiny for welterweight and as a wrestleboxer, he's merely OK. I don't think he has any power in his shots at all. Lots of arm punches. His judo (his whole base) seemed absent here. I get that it was another judoka he was facing, but he couldn't do anything really to get him down? We had to have this instead?

Predictions for 2011: 5-1. Somehow the full review on Hawn/Wallhead didn't save but I was going to pick Hawn because of his team. That's alright.

CORRECT: Masvidal/Evangelista, Kennedy/Manhoef, Coenen/Carmouche, Good/Lozano, Lapsley/Hieron

WRONG: Henderson/Cavalcante

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

Bellator:

Toby Imada vs. Ferrid Kheder: This is the only fight where I've seen multiple fights of both men and feel safe in doing anything close to a prediction. The popular pick online is Imada because Kheder typically never looks that good in big steps up in competition. Right or wrong, people are going to pick against him because he looked bad in robbing Hermes Franca blind. But he is a strong guy, a stout guy, and he's very dangerous. And with people loving Imada, Toby really is not a great finisher, isn't that strong, and while he goes for a lot of stuff, its often low percentage and leaves him open for counters of all sorts. As a result, yes, I will pick Kheder to win.

NEWS FLASH 3/11 - Kheder misses weight by a truck load. This isn't necessarily shocking news because he's done it before. He paid a bunch for having missed weight by 10 lbs against Nakamura at M-1's Kansas City event a couple years ago. This time he was told he wasn't needed and Imada now has Josh Shockley tabbed as his opponent.

Shark Fights 14:

Matt Horwich vs. Danillo Villefort: Villefort is a more consistent and skilled fighter. Horwich will come on strong in round 3, but he's the MMA version of a 15 round fighter. This is just a 3 round sprint, and that favors Villefort who is better at more things though perhaps not as singularly driven as Horwich.

Tara LaRosa vs. Carina Damm: Damm can roid up if she wants. LaRosa, skillwise, is possibly the best women's fighter ever. This isn't at a bad weight for her either. I think Damm will look for takedowns and to go to top control but end up meeting sweeps, scrambles and knees as a result. LaRosa by decision.

THATS ALL FOLKS. ENJOY THE FIGHTS!

THE BIG SHOW REVIEW: Week of 2/28

A long time ago, I came up with the idea of doing this blog for crap shows only because I figured I'd remember the UFCs and PRIDEs. That was 50 UFCs ago, 34 Bellators ago, god knows how many DREAMS, Sengokus, and all the rest. I also don't care about debating fights with trolls anymore, so I decided that I'd just post my opinionz 4 u here in short form.

UFC ON VERSUS 3:

-The main was the thing that really mattered, and what a bad decision that was. I can see Sanchez getting the third because he got a takedown and Kampmann had to run after injuring his hand, but up to that, Kampmann was demolishing him still. And in the first two rounds, he clearly landed more punches and pulverized Sanchez's face. You shouldn't win just because your head is hard and you throw lots of wild shots, but clearly that's the case in MMA. This isn't a 10 point must system issue, its an issue of people not knowing what they are seeing. Not merely comprehension, but paying attention. If you are focused solely on the guy winging bombs and not when the counters land flush over and over, how can you reasonably score a bout?

-Was I the only dude looking at Tavares moving straight back to defend punches thinking "If Roller just comes forward with straight shots, he'll body him"? I guess so. No one thinks like that.

-Pokrajic or whatever still isn't all that good a fighter. Robot standup. Hands down.

-DJ Galloway or whatever that dude's name is who choked on TUF twice getting laid out from a right hand after he pawed with the jab - BASICS BASICS BASICS. And in the first minute, he looked totally dominant too.

-Chris Weidman is a good prospect. Honestly, Sakara is not that great on the mat and if you get him there, you should finish, but he's a vet and Weidman is young. Doesn't need a step up from this fight for years. Just lots of these guys. Also, this guy beat Phil Davis wrestling? How? His shot is slow and he depended on Sakara coming forward to throw to get the distance down for the shot. He had no setups. He couldn't get Sakara to bite hard on any feints.

-Tired of people talking about Brian Bowles like he can't win because he quit over a broken hand. News flash: Tapping is quitting. Everyone accepts quitting in MMA. Everyone. So Bowles did the smart thing in the context of the sport and came back to fight another day. Page wasn't on his level and he showed it countering the wide shots with an uppercut and getting that guillotine afterwards in the scramble.

------------------------------

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

STRIKEFORCE 3/5:

Billy Evangelista vs. Jorge Masvidal: Cashing out Evangelista like this? Masvidal is not easy for anyone to take down, and while Evangelista has decent leg kicks, Gurgel and Clint Coronel had some success coming over the top with punches against those. The big question for me - will Masvidal shoot? If he does, Evangelista is screwed. I like Jorge simply because he has more ways to win.

Tim Kennedy vs. Melvin Manhoef: Kennedy is a small middleweight who does a lot of basic things right and is a solid grappler. Manhoef is a lousy grappler who uses physical strength to make up for errors there and throws wide, wide shots. He also likes roundhouse leg kicks, which to wrestlers are like manna from heaven. Bad style matchup for Manhoef. Not much is said about Melvin's age. He's already in his mid 30s having started late in combat sports. How long of a career can he realistically have?

Marloes Coenen vs. Liz Carmouche: I dunno. I don't break down women's fights because I know jack shit about half the ladies. Coenen beat Becki Levi with a flying armbar and looks good, so she wins in 3 rounds.

Rafael Cavalcante vs. Dan Henderson: Hendo is a strong guy, a good wrestler, and 40. And his punching is all right hand based. Cavalcante outlasted another smaller wrestler recently and then a couple fights ago got lit up by a good size kickboxer. What am I saying? I think this is a pretty even fight. Cavalcante should win and get some buzz off beating Henderson (who is still near the top ten at 205 or in it imo) and that's his biggest career moment.

BELLATOR 35:

Lyman Good vs. Chris Lozano: I think a lot of people are taking the hot pick in Lozano but I go with Good since he's had more big fight experience. Lozano is a good striker and he's got decent size for 170, but you know, beating the hell out of a journeyman 155lb fighter and beating a guy with repeated solid wins at welterweight are two different things. We saw Good have problems with Askren's wrestling. Since when was Lozano a wrestler? He's a thai boxer more than anything.

Dan Hornbuckle vs. Brent Weedman: No idea about Weedman. Won't predict.

Jay Hieron vs. Anthony Lapsley: In past viewings of Lapsley, I've seen him taken down by the likes of Mike Stumpf and John Mahlow. Hieron is one of the best wrestlers at welterweight anywhere. Lapsley often outlasts guys and has better submissions than them. This is unlikely to be the case with Hieron. Expect three rounds of blah.

Rick Hawn vs. Jim Wallhead: Wallhead I've seen with Bellator and he got in with a surprise win. Hawn is old but from a high end team. Doesn't bode well

ENJOY THE FIGHTS!