UFC FIGHT NIGHT 24:
-Noguiera defended the takedown! What a job Mark Munoz did in camp for him! I mean, Rodrigo Noguiera did previously beat another strong wrestler in Matyushenko, but I considered him possibly washed up at that time. Still, Noguiera didn't win the fight. After stuffing the doubles in the first, Davis eventually starts working for single and gets those and controls the second and third rounds. His striking is still a bit shaky and robotic. The high kicks are especially uncomfortable looking coming from him. The shot is not super fast - maybe he works on it more now, but a pure power wrestler in the vein of V-Mat, Bader, or Tito isn't gonna get the job done to beat Jon Jones. Not no way, not no how. Noguiera meanwhile regresses to gatekeeper status again. Another fight with Shogun makes sense, as does a Tito fight, a rematch with Bader, a rematch with Brilz, and hell, lots of other fights. He's a good all purpose dude to have around.
-Dan Hardy can't stop the double. That is the story of the fight with Anthony Johnson, who remembered that he was a wrestler first. Joe Rogan specifically points to the grazing high kick in round 1 and resulting top control for Johnson as when he thinks the lightbulb went off in Johnson's head. Do I agree? I dunno. Probably not. Johnson doesn't even set up the shot with strikes - Hardy comes forward, Johnson is bouncing around on his toes, and then he just shoots and gets deep penetration with the shot. Hardy comes away looking just as one dimensional as everyone supposed he was coming in. Anthony Johnson, meanwhile, is like the black Mike Swick. Too small to be an effective middleweight at an elite level, not talented enough to really run with top welterweights but more effective at 170 so long as he can make weight by overpowering lesser guys. Where does he go now? A Koscheck rematch?
-Amir Sadollah is the MMA version of a pressure fighter in boxing. Pressure fighters come forward, throwing combinations, never hurt guys with one shot, and just break you down with the assault. Sadollah was helped in this by Damarques Johnson's poor ability to control the action on the mat when on top. Seriously, Johnson's attempts to pass guard were some of the most poorly suggested ever imaginable. He could have laid in half guard and ground down some of Amir's energy and landed some shots. Instead he lost dominant position twice looking to try and improve on it. Foolish. Amir can't break eggs with his shots, but they do accumulate, and if your opponent isn't that well conditioned, he will fold. Amir also has another problem - he can't wrestle. Still. Don't think he ever will at this point. UFC is giving him good development fights right now but how long will they be willing to keep this up when almost no one remembers Sadollah or what season he's from? I don't remember what season he's from.
-Korean Zombie lands a twister against a guy who's grappling is...uhh....questionable. Oh who cares. Neither one will make a mark in the elite tiers. This was for fun and Jung proved to have changed his approach.
-I tried to watch Hathaway/McCray but got bored and my mind would drift. Hathaway still can't wrestle and McCray is just too generic and mediocre to take advantage of dominant positions or to bang out Hathaway standing (where he was superior to Hathaway). Hathaway gets a couple trips and some sweeps and wins a competitive fight. Problem here is that McCray isn't really a competitive guy at 170 and frankly, Hathaway sorta isn't either. The momentum of the Sanchez fight is long gone now. What we have in the welterweight division is the UFC attempting to manufacture another contender out of the morass of second tier fighters by not matching these guys against one another, and instead putting them in with weaker gatekeeper style fighters. This has led to Anthony Johnson and Carlos Condit sticking their heads up above the rest of the group for right now, wrong or right. IMO wrong and Kampmann is better than either. But who cares about my opinion when most MMA fans are blithering idiots who can't see actual star potential or look at pro fighters rationally as to what they offer? Condit makes for exciting fights against not so good fighters and so he is deserving of skipping over all the guys who actually have beaten people at his level or above, and that's too bad for people like me, who want to see fights that aren't a wash. Oh well. More Koscheck style jab fests, ahoy! At least these guys who will get the shit kicked out of them are white and speak english, so the UFC won't waffle about booking the fights.
I know it sounds like complaining, but really, the UFC should and does know better than this. Maybe its all they can think of doing with the pool of guys from #7-#27?
ULTIMATE FIGHTER:
-Did I really see this shit correctly? This is the list of fighters? Shamar Bailey is who I'm most familiar with and he won the opening bout of the show by laying on German kickboxer Nordin Asrih for two rounds in side control or half guard. His shots were basically uncontested and this was an easy, easy fight. Bailey lost to the son of legendary dirt track racer Steve Kinser and Justin Wilcox in the cage. To be blunt, he's a strong guy and a good wrestler but not much else. Certainly no one to get excited about in the UFC. The rest of the cast, as best I can give opinions on:
Ramsey Nijem: DII/DIII wrestler for Utah Valley, beat a legitimate fighter in Scott Casey.
Len Bentley: Southern fighter. Lost to a McKenzietine. Made it to the M1 Selection Finals and lost.
Charlie Rader: 14-4 Pro record features no meaningful wins. Oddly, he has a meaningful win listed as an amateur bout against Josh Rafferty in Bellator from 2009. Did as well with Adrien Miles as did Dave Menne.
Anthony Ferguson: Win over David Gardner by what appears to be GNP, as well as a W against James Fanshier. Also has lost to Karen Darabedyan.
Ryan McGillvray: Lots of experience against good fighters, unfortunately he's lost to most all of them. Still, experience counts when so many guys totally lack it. BTW, he's serving a suspension from the NSAC. So, yeah. He probably doesn't win.
Mick Bowman: British.
Keon Caldwell: Southern fighter who suffered a submission loss to one of the Lima brothers. Notable in that there's not a lot of BJJ masters on this show.
Clay Harvison, Chris Cope, Chuck O'Neil, Javier Torres, Zack Davis: No notable things to be said at this moment.
Its a crap shoot as far as who wins. Gun to my head, I pick Bailey, I guess. I think Nijem and Rader are the most interesting to see otherwise. I feel like Bowman wouldn't be here if he couldn't fight a little bit, so he should be interesting to see. Cope and O'Neil come from good schools and that may make them better prepared.
BELLATOR:
-M'Pumbu got exposed terribly last year and here in the states it can be expected to happen against. Chris Davis, his opposition for his first US fight, was basically unknown and had suffered losses to modern Jeremy Horn and Vinny Magahales. He got some decent GNP in the first round but as the fight dragged, M'Pumbu was able to generally go for decent submission attempts and totally controlled the third round. He got down Davis after landing some punches, and then beat him up from riding the back landing punch after punch until Davis slumps from a shot to the temple, forcing a stoppage. He's got some decent striking (though his chin is often up while he throws) and his submission grappling is good. However, he is a lousy wrestler.
-Fekete and Hale - I know neither. But man, Hale is a big, big dude. Fekete is a serious wrestler and he's skilled, gets down Hale and looks to take him down again and slam him during a scramble from side control. What does Hale do? An inverted triangle. An inverted triangle. Holy crap. Fekete doesn't even tap, he goes out cold.
-DJ Linderman looks totally different as a light heavyweight. Smaller man as he was at heavyweight, but with the weight down, his cardio is up even more. Against Davis, who is the better wrestler, he again wears him down as he did against the much larger Mario Rinaldo and gets takedowns and lands strong punches at range. Davis is mouth open and gassed, leaning back into shots, and has to shoot in desperation after a particularly hard left hand shot in the second. Linderman still shows that like against Rinaldi, his ability to defend the shot and hold onto position isn't that great, but when the opposition is so tired as it is here, he can hang on. Linderman ultimately wins by TKO after landing lots of punches, takes Davis, throws him to the ground from Thai plumb, and crushes him with a right hand while Davis is on all 4's. Linderman is a sprawl and brawl guy from the days of 2003 and I admit being very surprised that he was successful here. I wouldn't rush to bet against him elsewhere in the tourney.
-Tim Carpenter's win over Daniel Gracie should be a surprise but I didn't really feel that way. Gracie never really adapted to MMA well and Carpenter, a BJJ black belt himself, actually controlled the grappling action and actively went for dominant positions and submissions. He had the mount and two armbar attempts in round 1 alone. On the feet, he tagged Daniel Gracie with punches and rocked him in the second and third. It wasn't a perfect fight, because honestly, he should have tapped him with all the positions he had. But it was solid. And he showed a gas tank that will be key in beating future opponents.
STUFF I MISSED AND CAUGHT UP ON:
Fight for the Troops 2!
Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman: Cole Miller is a BJJ guy at heart and walks forward punching like one in this fight. The downside of doing that is Wiman counters him as he closes the distance, Miller sucks at infighting, and he gets taken down repeatedly. Wiman takes round after round after round as a result. You can't say that Wiman looks noticeably different in his approach - its just a terrible gameplan for Miller that negates his positives that leads him down the road to a big L.
Joey Beltran vs. Pat Barry: The most overrated striker in the recent history of heavyweight MMA fighting some brawler dude. How does it go? As you'd expect. What I found interesting about this fight was the complete absence of a game plan from Beltran. Apparently his idea was to stand at range from Barry and get kicked? Great idea, dude. He repeatedly finds success pushing Barry to the cage and beating him up with dirty boxing. So does he keep after it? No, because it won't get him a fight of the night bonus and will have him released if he does lose. Instead, he fights stupid and takes a billion leg kicks. Somehow he hangs on to the end of the fight, winning one round on some cards (likely the first) and then dropping the second and third. Barry still can't wrestle, is still small, and still depends on other guys being mediocre to beat up on them.
Joker Guymon vs. Damarques Johnson: Guys who got a UFC contract off of merchandising deals? Joker, of course. Oh, he has some OK wins too, but he didn't get the chance because of his skills. So what happens? Johnson takes him down, gets on top, and eventually transitions to back control. Then Joker taps out to a body triangle after getting straightened out. Joke is on me for watching!
Cody McKenzie vs. Yves Edwards: Still astounded this fight happened. Cody is really a featherweight and should drop. He still is a terrible athlete and is a one trick pony, but who knows. Featherweight sucks. Cody does the usual job of a Gracie BJJ guy and rushes with strikes to get a clinch. Yves is kinda good standing and so this begins to look like it will be a terrible beating. And that's basically what happens. If you are looking for positives from McKenzie, its that he is very tough and can take a hellified beating. He pulls down Yves Edwards and actually has back control for a significant period in the second. But he's not that strong, Yves is too crafty a grappler himself, and after being forced to keep scrambling for position, Edwards eventually reverses position and gets his own RNC. Fighter meets gatekeeper, doesn't pass.
George Roop vs. Mark Hominck: Another sure to be beatdown. Roop stands and bangs and he's fighting a guy who is a lot, lot better than him at that. And that's what we get. Roop doesn't know how to use height, leaves his chin up, and gets demolished. Right hands, left hooks, whatever. They land with impunity because Roop moves straight back, doesn't jab, doesn't throw front kicks, doesn't clinch.
Mike Brown vs. Rani Yahya: Brown is on the wrong side of his career fighting in a division seeing an influx of new talent from a weight class he got bounced out of. Yahya, a last minute replacement who was better suited for 135 than 145, should be a guy he walks through and dominates throughly by taking and holding down. Or by banging out standing where Yahya sucks. So what really happens? Brown lands a strong overhand right over the wild strikes of Yahya, and that's how its looking to go. But Yahya just keeps running and moving, throwing off Brown. That's not good. Then Yahya shoots a single. Brown defends it initially, but keeps getting dragged down and can't get separation. In the second, Brown again goes to strike with Yahya, but then does the astonishing and initiates the clinch. Why do that? Why put yourself at risk instead of strike? Brown is on top and does nothing there after nearly being guillotined. After the standup by the ref, same thing happens. Who is making Brown's gameplans for him? Is he just not capable of executing? Is he that ingrained to wrestle? With Yayha's decision to go to flail and shoot at the start, Brown is again on the defensive and now too tired to do anything about it. He gets taken down and slowly gives up position from full to half guard, then gives up the back, is flattened, and gets Brown beat the hell up with punches. Yamasaki gives Brown a reprieve due to shots to the mohawk area and again its another flail and shoot and Brown can't fight it off.
Hague was a good opponent for Mitrione and his development, wasn't he? Stand and bang guy who is smaller than Mitrione and less of an athlete. Mitrione's southpaw stance is something no one talks about. Hague never threw the straight right to counter and instead ate left hands over and over that he didn't see coming. Joe Silva is hella small too. I keep forgetting about that. And his hair! But back to Mitrione. This is a fairly soft touch intended to build up his record and confidence. Not much past that. He's not at the level that Schaub is but hey, that's expected. He has a long time in the game to get better.
Evan Dunham had no answers for Melvin Guillard's one-two. Never changed the speed up on his closing with Melvin, never came behind his own jab, never set the distance, didn't keep his chin down or use lateral movement. Got caught flat footed and was put out as a result. Melvin needs more wins against this level of competition before anyone can reasonably start to believe in him.
PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS
RESULTS: 3-3
OVERALL FOR THE YEAR: 18-6
STRIKEFORCE:
Weird card with what looks like a Bodog headliner in Rodrigo Damm vs. Justin Wilcox. Damm has never been a great grappler from the bottom, and Wilcox is a pretty darn good one from the top. Put that together with Wilcox's superior wrestling and Damm's losses in 3 of his last 4 and its pretty clear that Wilcox is getting another W. Does he stop Damm? Nah. I don't think so. So he will in 2 rounds.
BELLATOR:
Is it really a newsflash that Pat Curran won't beat Eddie Alvarez? He's not a good enough BJJ guy to do it, and while I think Alvarez is actually getting wilder and more hittable in the standup now than he was 3 years ago, I don't think Curran is the guy to expose him. Alvarez by TKO, crowd goes wild.
Tournament Fights: Lyman Good may have not been able to stop the takedowns of Ben Askren, a potentially undersized grappler, but Askren was a great wrestler who is a ball of kinetic energy being unleashed in the cage and who seeks dominant positions and punches. Rick Hawn is an undersized welterweight who hasn't shown explosive shots and active grappling, but instead shows the game of a flat footed wrestleboxer. Can't bet against Good in this fight. I just can't do it. Good probably would be wise to go to the clinch early and test what precisely Hawn offers for throws and physical strength. See where his technique is or if he plans on overpowering him. If its the latter, then beat him mercilessly.
Toby Imada is everyone's favorite journeyman. Unfortunately, journeymen are journeymen for a reason: They aren't good enough to stay in one place and establish themselves as contenders. Patricky Friere is a lot like Thiago Alves to me. Maybe not as good - somewhere between Thiago Tavares and Thiago Alves in terms of doing similar things with grappling and being willing to look for KOs. Now, Toby Imada got robbed against Pat Curran, but otherwise since 2007 in MMA aside from the KO to Eddie Alvarez hasn't lost. I will agree to this, for whatever that statement means. He has even beaten a guy who I still think is a better fighter in him in Jorge Masvidal. Proof is on youtube! if Friere is willing to take down Imada, he deserves to get submitted, swept, or otherwise lose the fight. But if he plays the smart game and stands at a distance and beats him up, he should stop Imada. And that's a big win for the guy. Way better than Rob McCullough.
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