Friday, April 8, 2011

BIG SHOW REVIEW WEEK OF 4/4

RECAP:

Strikeforce Challengers got it's own review. Check that here.

Bellator 39:

I don't do biz talk, but Bellator is spending about $1-2 per fan watching at home on TV per show. And this isn't pay cable where the network is getting $5-7 from that fan to get the channel. The network gets about .10-.2o per subscription (if that, may be free) plus ads. Odd that no one has mentioned this.

-I called Imada getting laid out. Terrible fight for that guy. Freire is now on everyone's mind as being a top independent and being a serious challenger for Alvarez. Note: Alvarez is a whole different hill of beans than is Imada. I'm not at all convinced he's a real challenge for him.

-I called Good beating Hawn. Just one problem - the judges didn't see it that way. The takedown at the end of the third probably won Hawn the fight, as everyone knows. The fight itself was nothing special - Good was very aware and afraid of Hawn's clinch and takedowns and yet Hawn was hardly all that successful with them. Instead he pushed Good to the cage and held him there trying to pummel while Good threw pitty pat punches. The fight as abjectly terrible. What was with Good's wild combination that he got taken down off of in round 2? Why didn't he jab more? He should have recognized the situation early on and skipped out on the leg kicks, pumped the jab, and stayed as far away as possible, making sure to continuously move to Hawn's left. Instead, he generally stayed in front of Hawn and his squared up figure made it easy to be grabbed onto for the body lock.

-Ben Saunders beating up Matt Lee isn't a bad thing. He did what he needed to and cut the hell out of Lee and stopped him. But Saunders looked tired after the first and he left legs out there for a much, much smaller man to grab and pick up. Everyone talks about his clinch fighting - Why is a 6'3'' welterweight specializing in the clinch? And that is why he's never going to amount to a real contender, people.

-I only ended up seeing Alvarez/Curran for about the first two rounds thanks to the show going long and me having a couple programs to record at the same time at 11PM. Oh well. Curran hangs on to survive and wasn't trying to win. Supposedly he may have taken the 5th round. I'll tell you one of these days if I get another chance to watch it.

ULTIMATE FIGHTER WITH BLAHHHHHHH:

Uhhh, fight shown this week was a somewhat interesting battle of positioning between Chris Cope and Javier Torres. Torres was claimed to be perhaps the most or second most talented guy on Team Dos Santos, which makes me very worried for the rest of the year. Chris Cope is a mildly talented brawler in the mold of TUF 9 star Frank Lester. He's a part time fighter who has a little bit of wrestling from probably high school and his time at Team Quest as well as some brawlriffic striking. Torres is obviously a BJJ guy with some kickboxing. For the record, I think Torres clearly won rounds one and two by pushing the fight where he wanted it (against the cage) and landing the better blows in the standup exchanges and in the clinch. Feeling bad or something for Cope, instead he was given the second by a couple judges and we were off to sudden death. There, Torres, dead tired, continued his same sort of wall and stall strategy only to keep losing position in the pummel and even get his back taken briefly. He was just outworked that round, and lost the fight. Torres has zero wrestling. Zero.

PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS:

Last Week: 3-1

Overall for the year: 21-7

MFC 29:

-Douglas Lima against Terry Martin is almost a cruel joke of a fight. Martin epitomizes wasted potential. Lima is just mildly interesting as far as potential goes. Martin has zero chin, but Lima is no great striker. In fact, having watched Lima before, I still have no idea if he can strike. At all. Martin is a decent wrestler, but he is terrible at game plans. Alternately, he's never been submitted. Jesus. I hate fights like this. I gotta go with Martin. Bigger guy, stronger guy, better wrestler, should be able to control where the fight is, and clearly a better striker based on the evidence that exists.

Strikeforce:

-Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley is an interesting matchup for a great number of reasons. Diaz has largely owned guys standing for sometime, but Daley is not a brawler who relies entirely on pressure. He's a solid technical guy. Daley has suspect takedown defense - he seems to know what he's doing against Jake Shields at times, then gets taken down by Jorge Masvidal other times. Diaz is, frankly, not a great wrestler, and that's gonna be a problem for him. At least, it would be if I had any expectation that this fight was going there. Truth be told, Nick Diaz loses to fighters of Paul Daley's level, and I think that's precisely what happens here. With five rounds and Daley being a punching monster, I think Diaz gets the lights turned out on him here. I can see Diaz winning by submission should he get dropped and Daley follow him to the mat, but if I'm gonna suggest a winner, I'm picking Paul Daley around round 3.

-Mousasi and Jardine is an interesting fight for a great many reasons, but not the least of which is the fact that Mousasi admits to not training in a cage for this bout. All but admits he's anticipating standing and banging. And with Jardine, that is a legitimate possibility. Mousasi is probably a strong enough grappler to fight off Jardine's clinch and takedown attempts, should he bother with them, and as far as them trading punches and kicks goes - would you want to pick Jardine to win a standup fight in light of losing to an old middleweight wrestler from South Africa? I thought not. Mousasi looks good here and rebounds in his career. Jardine continues the spiral into irrelevance.

-Lyle Beerbohm was lucky to get a decision win over Vitor Riberio, who stylistically is very similar to Shinya Aoki but not as good from the bottom. Aoki is a better overall grappler and even if he sucks standing, Beerbohm is no killer. Clear difference in skills, Aoki wins by submission, possibly a leg lock.

-I want to analyze Melendez/Kawajiri, but I don't have the time to do it properly. I think Melendez wins because even though he is a naturally smaller man, he's gotten better technique wise, grown more as a fighter, and the general momentum is on his side.

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