-Jim Miller made Shalorus look as ordinary as I expected. He's better striking, he's faster, more technical, much better at submissions, etc. When Shalorus shot in the second, it led to him getting his back immediately taken and rode for two minutes. He couldn't even recognize the foot lock Miller openly gave him by crossing his feet. Miller started seeing Shalorus ducking his head and began in the third round by ending combinations with uppercuts. He wiffs a few times then catches him, hurting Shalorus and leading to the ending knee and punching spree. Fights like this honestly don't do anything for Miller but build confidence, and that's really not the worst thing in the world. He needs a fight with Clay Guida before making the step up to a title contest, but he's being brought along nicely IMO. Just needs that experience of a wrestleboxer with straight, fast punches. Miller never led the exchanges and never needed to either. Shalorus was that predictable and slow.
-Forgot to reference Assunciao getting laid out by Koch. This is another example of guys dropping down to 145 when its viable and destroying the mainstays of the division. Koch timed the hook beautifully and was generally doing a very good job setting the traps and counters beforehand. In that talent wasteland, who knows what he can do?
-Brendan Schaub didn't make a fan out of me beating the shell of Cro-Cop. Yes, the takedowns looked good. Almost like tackles. But Cro-Cop's takedown D has been tested and failed on numerous occasions in the last couple years. Plus - the top of the division are guys with All American awards as wrestlers. Some of the guys beneath them are in the same boat. Schaub is athletic and changes levels well, but his striking is slow to develop. So much one punch at a time stuff that a better guy is going to take advantage of fast. A rematch with Roy Nelson would be interesting, I suppose. Meanwhile, Cro-Cop is finished and has been for a long time. You'd be insane to have denied it even two years ago.
-Eddie Wineland, a guy who by all accounts is a lousy wrestler, forced Faber to work very hard for takedowns in round 1. That is the big takeaway from the fight with Faber and Wineland. Faber is still short for a bantamweight, he still holds his hands too low, and he's still very fast and tough to time. He had a tough time really bothering Wineland with his slapping punches until later in round 3, but I think it was clear that Faber was landing the better stuff in round 1 and won all three stanzas. But the takedowns - you know, there was this beauty in round 2 where Faber gives a feint and then sorta floats his way straight into the wheelhouse of Wineland, scoops up the lead leg, and then trips the back one. It was marvelous. But against Cruz, I have a feeling it doesn't work now. Cruz moves and movers need to have the ring cut off and you need to shoot for center mass punching them. Faber doesn't do that. He relies entirely on his athleticism. Maybe I'm going about this all wrong and Cruz really isn't any faster than Wineland, but I don't believe that to be true and so I don't see Faber having an easy time putting Cruz on his back or beating him.
-Dan Miller isn't a very good middleweight. What else is new? Marqhardt is bigger, throws harder, gets better position, and can fight his way back up from takedowns like nobody's business. Miller just throws crappy punches and tries to get takedowns off Marqhardt's more spectacular leaping kicks and punches. Speaking of Marqhardt leaping: What the fuck was that technique he was using? He keeps his distance then jumps in and then throws punches? Uhhh, dude. You are not Roy Jones. You are not fast enough to move in and out linearly like that and not get timed by much better fighters. Or even just OK fighters, which is how you lost to gatekeepers like Okami and Sonnen.
-Gleison Tibau vs. Kurt Pellegrino can best be described as "a fucking mess". Both men are firmly entrenched in the position of "journeymen" and in turn, this should be a sort of crossroads fight where one is demoted out of the UFC and the other keeps their place. Instead, what we get is a tepid, nigh unwatchable affair with neither man trying to win the 3rd and final round, and only one round comprehensively won by either man (Pellegrino wins the second off the strength of his striking, a solid right hand on Tibau, and a takedown). Tibau probably wins the 3rd round off the strength of his own takedown with 45 seconds left along with his more orthodox but robotic and slow boxing. Pellegrino pushes what little action occurs in the first round but neither guy lands anything. Its a split decision and I would have been fine with a draw.
-Njoukani and Barboza put on the FOTN as the folks running the show thought, and I guess I agree. It was a decent, skilled standup battle that while it wasn't a fever pitched exchange of winging punches was pretty fun to watch. Barboza really believes strongly in the kicks. That's fine. Just one issue; MMA is ruled by wrestlers. Wrestlers live to catch guys throwing kicks. If Anthony Njoukani can take you down, you will be planted on your back for an entire fight against Clay Guida. Barboza's wild spinning kicks are also just begging for double leg takedowns to counter them. And to be entirely honest, I can see why people would feel like Njoukani was robbed here. It was a close fight in which Njoukani outworked Barboza in both rounds 2 and 3 but lost the last 45 seconds in such decisive manner that it probably altered the judges' perception of the entire 5 minute period. Its nice to outland your opponent, but if they can wobble you once in a round where you do little more than jab then, judges will remember that. If they take you down too? You better get busy.
-The less said about Catone/Phillipou, the better. Constantinos still can't stop the shot and still can't do anything from the bottom. If he wasn't on his back, he was against the fence and unable to do anything. Catone can wrestle and even if Philipou can strike well, it doesn't matter if he keeps being taken down and mauled. Might as well cut him after this.
I didn't see the other two fights, so yeah. Well, OK. I saw a little of Benevidez/Loveland. Man, Benevidez had a helluva time getting him down, didn't he? That's the problem with being too small for your division sometimes. Already you're seeing scrub 145lb fighters move down and make noise or at least be competitive with the top of the class.
PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS
Titan Fighting Championship: I could easily run my record up predicting two of the fights, but that's not fun. Instead, the co-main event is Abe Wagner, TUF alum, against ShoXC alumni Aaron Rosa. Aaron Rosa fought in a stinker against Devin Cole that he didn't deserve to win, and lost to some light heavyweights that aren't really at the next level or anything. On the other hand, Abe Wagner is a tough guy to explain. He KOed a former UFC champion, sure. He was also KOed in 8 seconds by Travis Browne and went to a split decision with Sherman Pendergarst. Don't even ask about TUF. In short, while Devin Cole is a strong wrestler with some striking ability and also the willingness to have whatever it is that assault in the fourth degree tied up with sexual harrassment means, he is markedly different from Abe Wagner, who has no wrestling background but instead played football at Michigan Tech.
Rosa may look soft, but he's skilled in ways Wagner isn't, and he doesn't typically wade into wide shots. He'll beat Wagner down and possibly KO him in the early stages.
Bellator 38: Again, only one fight I'm willing to predict - Raphael Davis and DJ Linderman is a fight between a foreign born product with some wins over legit opposition where, as best I've seen, he was dominant. On the other side, you have Linderman, who has heart, isn't as good a grappler, and as the "bigger man" was effectively just fat. Davis, meanwhile was plenty soft as well. But again; this is about who is more skilled, right? Davis is more skilled. He does more things well. Linderman might hang on for a decision but it seems like I get the winner right and the pick of how wrong. Since my inclination is a decision win for Davis, I'll say Davis wins by second round submission.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 24:
Phil Davis/Antonio Rogerio Noguiera is one of those fights you can only do when you really don't care who wins and you feel like it doesn't matter. Everyone is focused on Davis' wrestling, and Noguiera, like his twin, has problems with dominant wrestlers. He's also not as good as his brother from the bottom, though he certainly is skilled. Davis hasn't faced an equally skilled submission wrestler or striker to Noguiera, and he may be less willing to seek the takedown knowing that he could fall into Noguiera's traps on the mat. Standing, Noguiera won a bronze at the Pan Ams. I know more about it than anyone else because I watched the entire tournament. No matter how its framed, yes, it is impressive. So anyways, a pick: I think Noguiera wins, beating the young prospect probably by decision. There you go with that.
The undercard is interesting to me for a few fights - Dan Hardy and Anthony Johnson are fringe welterweight contenders, but Hardy does nothing well and isn't the kind of athletic and physical specimen that Johnson is. Nor is he as big. Hardy can hit plenty hard and Johnson's chin might be there to get hit, but I would be surprised if he lands real leather. Johnson is a big favorite for a reason, and I think he stops Hardy.
There's a lot of mediocre TUF guys on the undercard I can't be bothered to type about, but there's some other stuff I can get up for. Jon Madsen is a high level amateur wrestler and still undefeated as a pro. Mike Russow is also a high level amateur wrestler - not undefeated as a pro. On the other hand, Russow has face by far the better level of competition. Madsen will be a legitimate prospect in the division if he beats Russow...I'd think he's even better than one compared to Schaub. But talking about beating Russow and beating Russow are different things. In the end, experience matters and Russow has it along with talent. He beats Madsen and maybe even stops him with a keylock.
Also, finally: Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung: It was Krazy Horse/Syraipai for a new generation the first time. Rarely are wild brawls like that in the rematch. If you ask me who looked the worse for wear, or hell, asked anyone with eyes, they'd say the Korean Zombie doesn't look the same. I agree. Garcia by deserved decision.
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